Iran - AL-MONITOR: The Middle Eastʼs leading independent news source since 2012

Iran cover image

Iran

十月 4, 2026

Tehran 9:39 上午

22°C

Members of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) paramilitary forces stand guard during an election rally for the "Asaib Ahl al-Haq" movement in the capital Baghdad, on October 7, 2021.

Analysis

美国撤军后，伊朗在伊拉克获得了更多空间，也面临着更加艰难的平衡局面。

对伊朗来说，让华盛顿撤出可能是比较容易的部分，但现在它可能不得不努力将这种缺席转化为持久的影响力，并在不引发不稳定的情况下重振其盟友民兵组织。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

US President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (L) on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at Bestepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, on July 8, 2026.

特朗普的一体化政策建立在与海湾国家、土耳其的关系以及在叙利亚的成功之上。

伊朗的影响力以及再次爆发冲突的可能性，使伊拉克局势的进展变得复杂。

A Caspian Airlines McDonnell Douglas MD-83 lands at Sabiha Gokcen Airport in Istanbul, Turkey, on Aug. 17, 2014.

土耳其扣押伊朗里海航空公司客机，原因是伊朗拖欠340万美元债务。

伊斯坦布尔机场的法院下令扣押行动正值伊朗航空公司面临来自美国全面新航空制裁的日益增长的压力之际。

A woman crosses a street near a giant billboard erected on the facade of a building depicting a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps placing his foot on a US sea drone, reportedly seized by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, in Vanak Square in Tehran, on Sept. 24, 2026.

Analysis

随着伊朗对霍尔木兹岛的控制力减弱，德黑兰还剩下什么筹码？

战争爆发六个月后，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制力正在减弱。世界各国正逐渐适应这一局面，石油运输量正在恢复，替代路线正在拓展，而德黑兰自身的经济也正承受着维持该水道压力所带来的沉重代价。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Latest News

经过间接谈判，美国对伊朗实施新的制裁，目标是其武器供应。

Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles are seen on display beside a large portrait of Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei at Baharestan Square in Tehran on Sept. 28, 2026.

沙特股市跌至战时低点，因沙特阿美股价下跌，海湾石油出口反弹

伊朗里亚尔汇率跌至历史新低，石油出口压力不断增加

A man counts Iranian rial notes

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队抨击特朗普，加利巴夫威胁石油基础设施

Ghalibaf

An Iranian woman walks past a mural depicting a scene from the Iranian national epic "Shahnameh" in the capital Tehran on January 6, 2026. Iran's economy has been hit hard by tough international sanctions, with the national currency, the rial, losing more than a third of its value against the US dollar over the past year and inflation in double digits. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images)

伊朗：是什么引发了这波抗议浪潮？接下来会发生什么？

最初因经济状况而引发的抗议活动，越来越具有政治色彩，让人想起伊朗早期的全国性运动。

US President Donald Trump addresses a House Republican retreat at The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts on Jan. 6, 2026 in Washington, DC.

随着伊朗抗议活动愈演愈烈，特朗普对美国干预伊朗问题的表态前后矛盾。

特朗普总统将数十名抗议者的死亡归咎于踩踏事件，但视频显示伊朗安全部队正在向抗议者开火。

Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Kermanshah, Iran on January 8, 2026. The nationwide protests started in Tehran's Grand Bazaar against the failing economic policies in late December, which spread to universities and other cities, and included economic slogans, to political and anti-government ones. (Photo by Kamran / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)

Analysis

以色列对伊朗局势动荡保持警惕，认为“未来几天”对伊朗政权至关重要。

以色列方面的评估表明，虽然伊朗领导层尚未表现出完全失去控制的迹象，但随着抗议活动的持续，局势可能会发生变化。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Kamran / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images

随着抗议活动加剧，阿联酋、卡塔尔和土耳其飞往伊朗的航班被取消。

尽管通讯中断，但随着抗议活动持续升级，多家航空公司取消了飞往伊朗城市的航班。

A protester flashes victory signs as traffic slows during demonstrations in Hamedan, Iran, on Jan. 1, 2026.

伊朗爆发最大规模抗议活动，当局切断网络：你需要了解哪些信息

周四晚间，数千名伊朗民众在全国各地举行抗议活动，这是几十年来对伊斯兰共和国统治的最大挑战之一。

Mobina / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队警告以色列，伊朗已“扣动扳机”，伊朗抗议活动进入第11天

伊朗官员多次指责美国和以色列煽动伊朗境内的大规模抗议活动。

Rocks, tree branches, and a toppled charity box remain on a street during unrest amid demonstrations in Hamedan, Iran, on Jan. 1, 2026

医院遭袭，死亡人数不断攀升：伊朗动荡局势进入危险阶段

伊朗全国范围内的动荡局势不断加剧，致命武力与国家警告发生冲突，暴露出官方控制与快速增长的公众反抗之间日益扩大的差距。

A large anti-Israeli banner portraying an image of a Palestinian fighter and the slogan in Persian and Hebrew, "Endless Voice of Resistance" is erected in Palestine Square in Tehran on Dec. 31, 2025.

委内瑞拉遇袭后，伊朗抗议活动考验特朗普关于美国“拯救”伊朗的承诺

在美军抓捕委内瑞拉总统后，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普加倍警告美国将干预伊朗。

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands amid debris outside the Soroka Hospital after it was hit by a missile fired from Iran, Beersheba, Israel, June 19, 2025.

Analysis

受特朗普和抗议活动的鼓舞，以色列看到了对抗伊朗政权的机会。

以色列领导层警告德黑兰不要发动袭击，以此转移伊朗民众对正在进行的反政府示威活动的注意力。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Burning debris lies next to an overturned dumpster in the middle of a street during unrest amid demonstrations in Hamedan, Iran, on January 1, 2026. The demonstrations erupted after shopkeepers in Tehran's Grand Bazaar shut their businesses to protest the sharp fall of Iran's currency and worsening economic conditions, with clashes reported in several provinces and Iranian media and rights groups saying multiple people were killed in the violence, marking the largest protests to hit the Islamic Republic in

伊朗抗议活动进入第二周，加利巴夫警告称有“外国”势力介入。

伊朗高级官员开始将矛头指向外国势力，试图解释目前正在全国范围内进行的抗议活动。

A motorcycle rides past a graffiti depicting President Nicolas Maduro, Caracas, Venezuela, Jan. 3, 2026.

对以色列而言，抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被视为对伊朗和真主党的挫败。

以色列认为委内瑞拉是伊朗和真主党的盟友，因此对美军抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗表示欢迎。

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (L) is welcomed by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro at Miraflores Presidential Palace in Caracas, on June 12, 2023. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi arrived in Venezuela Monday for the start of a visit to "friendly countries" that also include Cuba and Nicaragua, all under sanctions from a common adversary, the United States. (Photo by Yuri CORTEZ / AFP) (Photo by YURI CORTEZ/AFP via Getty Images)

Analysis

除了委内瑞拉之外，马杜罗的倒台对孤立的伊朗意味着什么？

为了对抗美国的影响力并展示其全球影响力，伊朗多年来对委内瑞拉进行了大量投资，将其视为政治上结盟、经济上相互交织、言辞上对抗美国的盟友。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics