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Iran

十月 3, 2026

Tehran 9:25 下午

21°C

Members of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) paramilitary forces stand guard during an election rally for the "Asaib Ahl al-Haq" movement in the capital Baghdad, on October 7, 2021.

Analysis

美国撤军后，伊朗在伊拉克获得了更多空间，也面临着更加艰难的平衡局面。

对伊朗来说，让华盛顿撤出可能是比较容易的部分，但现在它可能不得不努力将这种缺席转化为持久的影响力，并在不引发不稳定的情况下重振其盟友民兵组织。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

US President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (L) on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at Bestepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, on July 8, 2026.

特朗普的一体化政策建立在与海湾国家、土耳其的关系以及在叙利亚的成功之上。

伊朗的影响力以及再次爆发冲突的可能性，使伊拉克局势的进展变得复杂。

A Caspian Airlines McDonnell Douglas MD-83 lands at Sabiha Gokcen Airport in Istanbul, Turkey, on Aug. 17, 2014.

土耳其扣押伊朗里海航空公司客机，原因是伊朗拖欠340万美元债务。

伊斯坦布尔机场的法院下令扣押行动正值伊朗航空公司面临来自美国全面新航空制裁的日益增长的压力之际。

A woman crosses a street near a giant billboard erected on the facade of a building depicting a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps placing his foot on a US sea drone, reportedly seized by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, in Vanak Square in Tehran, on Sept. 24, 2026.

Analysis

随着伊朗对霍尔木兹岛的控制力减弱，德黑兰还剩下什么筹码？

战争爆发六个月后，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制力正在减弱。世界各国正逐渐适应这一局面，石油运输量正在恢复，替代路线正在拓展，而德黑兰自身的经济也正承受着维持该水道压力所带来的沉重代价。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Latest News

经过间接谈判，美国对伊朗实施新的制裁，目标是其武器供应。

Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles are seen on display beside a large portrait of Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei at Baharestan Square in Tehran on Sept. 28, 2026.

沙特股市跌至战时低点，因沙特阿美股价下跌，海湾石油出口反弹

伊朗里亚尔汇率跌至历史新低，石油出口压力不断增加

A man counts Iranian rial notes

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队抨击特朗普，加利巴夫威胁石油基础设施

Ghalibaf

US President Donald Trump steps of Marine One as he returns to the White House on March 18, 2026, in Washington, DC.

Analysis

在霍尔木兹海峡对峙中，特朗普难以团结盟友。

唐纳德·特朗普总统再次敦促美国盟友“加大力度”，同时坚称不需要他们的帮助就能疏通霍尔木兹海峡。

Elizabeth Hagedorn

由 Elizabeth Hagedorn

In Washington, DC, reporting on diplomacy, regional politics, human rights

Rabbi Daniel Walker and King Charles III view floral tributes during a visit to Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue on Oct. 20, 2025, in Manchester, England.

英国和荷兰调查伊朗与针对犹太遗址阴谋的关联：你需要了解什么

英国当局称，有两名男子为伊朗在伦敦从事犹太社区的间谍活动，比利时和荷兰的犹太教堂最近也成为袭击目标。

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent arrives to attend an event in the East Room of the White House, Washington, DC, March 5, 2026.

美国考虑在霍尔木兹海峡危机期间放松对伊朗的石油制裁：你需要了解什么

美国财政部可能采取的措施将减轻伊朗原油的压力，因为华盛顿正寻求抵消伊朗实际上关闭霍尔木兹海峡造成的供应损失。

A picture of Qatar Energy's operating facilities on March 3, 2026 in Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar.

Analysis

伊朗对卡塔尔天然气田的袭击将如何影响未来数年的液化天然气市场？

伊朗对全球最大的液化天然气出口枢纽的袭击造成的破坏可能会导致大量供应中断数年，卡塔尔正在考虑是否宣布对向欧洲和亚洲供应液化天然气的长期合同构成不可抗力。

Samuel Wendel

由 Samuel Wendel

In Washington, DC, reporting on regional business and tech

In this aerial view, Storage tanks at Grain LNG importation terminal, operated by National Grid Plc sit near the River Medway in the Thames Estuary on March 12, 2026, in Isle of Grain, England.

墨西哥湾天然气供应中断导致欧洲天然气价格飙升 35% 后，会对欧洲天然气市场造成多大影响？

周四，欧洲天然气基准期货价格上涨高达 35%，达到每兆瓦时 68 欧元（78.09 美元）以上。

Lorries roll along the highway between Riyadh and al-Ahsa, some 200 kilometers east of the Saudi capital, on March 15, 2026. The war sparked by US-Israel strikes on Iran on February 28 has sparked chaos on global markets, and sent the price of oil soaring after the Islamic republic imposed control by force over the crucial artery. (Photo by Fayez NURELDINE / AFP via Getty Images) /

美国要求公民撤离沙特阿拉伯，此前伊朗袭击了该国能源设施：你需要了解什么

在伊朗对沙特阿拉伯境内能源设施发动袭击事件激增后，美国驻利雅得大使馆敦促其公民离开沙特阿拉伯。

US soldiers participate in the annual military exercises known as "Eager Lion" near Maan, some 200 kilometers south of the capital Amman on May 17, 2017.

伊朗指责约旦允许美国发射导弹：你需要了解什么

伊朗对约旦发出威胁之际，阿卜杜拉国王正在访问海湾地区，而约旦境内仍驻扎着数千名美军士兵。

An Iranian security force officer stands guard next to a huge billboard of Iran's newly nominated supreme leader Ayatollah Mojataba Khamenei (pointing) during Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day rally, a commemoration in support of the Palestinian people on the last Friday of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, in Tehran on March 13, 2026. On February 28, Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran, killing its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (photo bottom L) and triggering a war that spread across the M

Analysis

随着伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队加强控制，以色列认为伊朗政权更迭之路漫长。

以色列官员告诉《中东观察报》，虽然大量伊朗领导人被杀显然正在破坏该政权的稳定，但推翻该政权可能还需要很长时间。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

A Patriot anti-missile battery launcher, deployed by Dutch NATO soldiers, is seen March 11, 2003 at the Diyarbakir military airport in southeastern Turkey.

北约向土耳其部署新型“爱国者”导弹系统，菲丹在利雅得参加地区会谈

向土耳其重要空军基地部署兵力可能表明北约规划者对土耳其的军事资产日益关注。

Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, arrives in Beirut, Lebanon, on Sept. 27, 2025.

Analysis

拉里贾尼之死会加强伊朗强硬派的力量吗？

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队在战争中发挥了核心作用，并与新任命的最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊建立了联系，其影响力已经得到加强，可能会进一步巩固其在安全和外交政策方面的影响力。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

The city skyline is pictured in Dubai on March 11, 2026.

Analysis

战争持续不断，市场还能对海湾地区的韧性抱有多久的信心？

专家表示，霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭以及对海湾能源基础设施的持续攻击可能会导致整个地区的信用状况恶化。

由 Jack Dutton

In Bristol, reporting on regional business, climate change, AI, tech

A smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16, 2026.

Analysis

伊朗为何将阿联酋视为对抗美国和以色列战争的理想目标？

相比邻国，这个海湾国家遭受的打击更为严重，因为德黑兰重申了其对该国进行打击的权利。

Adam Lucente

由 Adam Lucente

In New York City, reporting on regional news, militancy, climate change