Since the United States and Israel went to war against Iran for a second time on Feb. 28, the potential role of Iran’s armed Kurdish groups in helping to overthrow the Iranian regime has been a matter of recurring debate. On day six of the war, President Donald Trump suggested that the United States was eager to support a Kurdish-led armed insurrection amid widespread reports that the CIA had already been providing arms and training to several Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan. It would be “wonderful” if Iranian Kurds joined in the fight against Tehran, he said. Several knowledgeable sources confirmed to Al-Monitor at the time that some weapons had been distributed to the Iranian Kurdish parties by US officials via the Harir Air Base near Erbil airport, where US forces are stationed. “We can say light weapons" were provided, one of the sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said.

US and Israeli airstrikes have also been targeting Iranian security installations across the Kurdish-populated regions of Iran, ostensibly to prepare the ground for a popular uprising that would ease the path of the Iranian Kurdish guerrillas crossing in.

However, it did not take long — only two days — for Trump to make a U-turn. “We are not looking to the Kurds going in,” he told reporters. “I’ve ruled that out.” The volte-face came as Iraqi Kurdish leaders, spooked by Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks on their territory, declared they had no intention of serving as a rear base for an Iranian Kurdish rebellion against Tehran. More critically, though, Turkey, a NATO ally with its own restive Kurdish population, aired its displeasure with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan saying that any such scheme would destabilize the region. 

The apparent scotching of those plans was followed by the two-week ceasefire with the United States that was announced on March 8. Yet Iran continues to strike both Iraqi and Iranian Kurdish targets inside Iraqi Kurdistan with drones and ballistic missiles. On Tuesday, Iran launched four attacks on at least two Iranian Kurdish groups inside the region.