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Iran

十月 3, 2026

Tehran 8:43 下午

21°C

Members of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) paramilitary forces stand guard during an election rally for the "Asaib Ahl al-Haq" movement in the capital Baghdad, on October 7, 2021.

Analysis

美国撤军后，伊朗在伊拉克获得了更多空间，也面临着更加艰难的平衡局面。

对伊朗来说，让华盛顿撤出可能是比较容易的部分，但现在它可能不得不努力将这种缺席转化为持久的影响力，并在不引发不稳定的情况下重振其盟友民兵组织。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

US President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (L) on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at Bestepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, on July 8, 2026.

特朗普的一体化政策建立在与海湾国家、土耳其的关系以及在叙利亚的成功之上。

伊朗的影响力以及再次爆发冲突的可能性，使伊拉克局势的进展变得复杂。

A Caspian Airlines McDonnell Douglas MD-83 lands at Sabiha Gokcen Airport in Istanbul, Turkey, on Aug. 17, 2014.

土耳其扣押伊朗里海航空公司客机，原因是伊朗拖欠340万美元债务。

伊斯坦布尔机场的法院下令扣押行动正值伊朗航空公司面临来自美国全面新航空制裁的日益增长的压力之际。

A woman crosses a street near a giant billboard erected on the facade of a building depicting a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps placing his foot on a US sea drone, reportedly seized by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, in Vanak Square in Tehran, on Sept. 24, 2026.

Analysis

随着伊朗对霍尔木兹岛的控制力减弱，德黑兰还剩下什么筹码？

战争爆发六个月后，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制力正在减弱。世界各国正逐渐适应这一局面，石油运输量正在恢复，替代路线正在拓展，而德黑兰自身的经济也正承受着维持该水道压力所带来的沉重代价。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Latest News

经过间接谈判，美国对伊朗实施新的制裁，目标是其武器供应。

Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles are seen on display beside a large portrait of Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei at Baharestan Square in Tehran on Sept. 28, 2026.

沙特股市跌至战时低点，因沙特阿美股价下跌，海湾石油出口反弹

伊朗里亚尔汇率跌至历史新低，石油出口压力不断增加

A man counts Iranian rial notes

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队抨击特朗普，加利巴夫威胁石油基础设施

Ghalibaf

An undated image of Eran Etzion.

Interview

以色列前安全官员：内塔尼亚胡在没有迫在眉睫的威胁的情况下，将美国和以色列推入了伊朗战争。

以色列前副国家安全顾问、反对派政治家埃兰·埃齐翁表示，即使美国选择退出，内塔尼亚胡也可能决定延长对真主党和伊朗的战争。

US President Donald Trump and President of Egypt Abdel Fattah El-Sisi clasp hands as they speak to the press before their meeting on Oct. 13, 2025, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.

埃及如何在伊朗战争中应对有限的选择以保持中立

埃及目前尚未遭受伊朗的报复性袭击，正努力寻求外交解决方案，因为与美国和以色列的战争威胁着其本已脆弱的经济。

United Arab Emirates army helicopters fly from the Burj al Arab hotel (R) toward Burj Khalifa, Dubai, Jan. 16, 2026.

Analysis

伊朗战争促成了土耳其与海湾国家的防御联盟，但并未促成两国结盟。

尽管由于美以对伊朗的战争，双方合作加速，但结构性和政治性的制约因素使得正式的军事联盟不太可能成立。

Barin Kayaoglu

由 Barin Kayaoglu

In Ankara, reporting on geopolitics and national security

Traffic rolls along a main throughfare under a banner with images of past and present leaders that reads in Farsi, "Domino fall", as daily life returns to the streets following nationwide protests, in the Iranian capital Tehran on January 19, 2026. Demonstrations sparked in late December by anger over economic hardship exploded into protests widely seen as the biggest challenge to the Iranian leadership in years. Limited internet access briefly returned in Iran before dropping again, a monitor said January

Analysis

伊朗史上持续时间最长的网络中断导致99%的用户断网：你需要了解什么

面对历史性的互联网封锁，伊朗人正与当局展开斗争，试图找到绕过此次通信封锁的漏洞，导致“封锁中的封锁”。

Samuel Wendel

由 Samuel Wendel

In Washington, DC, reporting on regional business and tech

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia's Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrive for a documents signing ceremony following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on January 17, 2025. (Photo by Vyacheslav PROKOFYEV / POOL / AFP) (Photo by VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Analysis

伊朗不明朗的指挥系统使俄罗斯的外交博弈变得复杂。

德黑兰的多重权力中心以及伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队日益增长的影响力，可能会使莫斯科与伊朗的关系及其在冲突中发挥调解作用的希望变得复杂。

Anton Mardasov

由 Anton Mardasov

Saeed Jalili, the radical presidential candidate of Iran, among supporters at Shahada airport on July 2, 2024.

Analysis

这位强硬派人士可能接替拉里贾尼，成为伊朗战时安全主管。

伊朗正在权衡被杀害的安全部长阿里·拉里贾尼的继任者，这一选择可能决定伊朗伊斯兰共和国是会加深对抗，还是会继续走上日益狭窄的缓和紧张局势的道路。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Soldiers board a US Marines CH-53 Super Stallion during an airfield seizure exercise as part of the US-Philippines Balikatan joint military exercise at San Vicente Airport in Palawan on May 1, 2024.

部署4000多名美国海军陆战队员将如何改变伊朗战争？

两支载有数千名美国海军陆战队员的舰队将为特朗普提供更多打通霍尔木兹海峡的选择，但将他们部署到海湾地区将需要扩大一场在国内已经非常不受欢迎的战争。

Indian vessel 'Nanda Devi' carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) arrives at Vadinar Port in the Jamnagar district of Gujarat state on March 17, 2026 after Iran allowed it to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy corridor that remains disrupted by the Middle East war.

伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制令西方国家陷入分裂，能源市场动荡不安

据分析公司 Kpler 的数据显示，3 月 1 日至 3 月 19 日期间，只有 114 艘船只穿越海峡，比战前交通量减少了 95%。

A picture taken on March 12, 2017, shows an Iranian tanker docking at the platform of the oil facility in the Khark Island, on the shore of the Gulf.

为何封锁哈尔克岛可能成为伊朗面临的最大经济威胁

该岛是伊朗的能源中心，占伊朗石油出口的 90%，也是伊朗重要军事设施的所在地。

This picture taken on August 11, 2025, shows the headquarters of the Qatari state-funded news television network Al Jazeera in the capital Doha. (Photo by Karim JAAFAR / AFP) (Photo by KARIM JAAFAR/AFP via Getty Images)

总部位于卡塔尔的半岛电视台评论员停止在社交媒体上活动：你需要了解什么

曾对这场战争持亲伊朗立场的 Saeed Ziad 已经好几天没有在 X 上发帖了，而 Fatima al-Smadi 的账号也被删除了，尽管他们的确切状况尚不清楚。

France's President Emmanuel Macron (L) wearing sunglasses shakes hands with Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam prior to their meeting at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris, on January 23, 2026. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP via Getty Images)

Analysis

狭路相逢：黎巴嫩推动谈判能否改变以色列的战争考量？

以色列外交部长吉迪恩·萨尔周日表示，黎巴嫩提出的直接对话提议目前尚未提上日程，但前战略事务部长、现任负责与美国联络的罗恩·德默尔暗示，总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡愿意认真考虑这一提议。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Excess gas is burned at the oil refinery in Israel's northern city of Haifa late on March 19, 2026.

Analysis

随着红海和东地中海地区也加入竞争，伊朗将能源目标扩大到海湾以外。

为了报复对其能源部门的袭击，德黑兰加强并扩大了对地区石油和天然气基础设施的打击力度，目标是沙特阿拉伯的延布港和以色列海法的炼油厂。

Samuel Wendel

由 Samuel Wendel

In Washington, DC, reporting on regional business and tech