Politics & Security - AL-MONITOR: The Middle Eastʼs leading independent news source since 2012

politics and security cover image

Politics & Security

Jewel SAMAD / AFP via Getty Images

尽管与伊朗的谈判陷入僵局，黎巴嫩与以色列的谈判仍将继续。

黎巴嫩总统约瑟夫·奥恩也表示，黎巴嫩将主导谈判，其他任何一方都不会参与，并强调这一进程与其他任何谈判都无关。

Pakistan Air Force J-10 fighter jets over Islamabad, March 23, 2025.

Analysis

巴基斯坦悄然向沙特阿拉伯部署战斗机，这暗示着海湾地区的焦虑情绪。

随着美伊谈判的展开，伊斯兰堡在调解和日益增强的军事作用之间寻求平衡。

Sabena Siddiqui

由 Sabena Siddiqui

In Karachi, reporting on South Asia, Middle East, Iran

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni shake hands during the press conference following their meeting at Villa Doria Pamphilj, on April 29, 2025, in Rome, Italy.

Analysis

意大利与土耳其达成TB3无人机交易，表明在美北约关系紧张之际，意大利正转向土耳其。

意大利预计将购买 TB3 无人机，这凸显了意大利与土耳其在国防和地缘政治领域日益加深的利益驱动型合作。

Barin Kayaoglu

由 Barin Kayaoglu

In Ankara, reporting on geopolitics and national security

Abdulla Balalaa, Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs for Energy and Sustainability, United Arab Emirates

Interview

阿联酋官员称开放霍尔木兹海峡是任何伊朗核协议不可或缺的一部分，并称基础设施损失“可控”。

阿联酋外交部能源与可持续发展助理部长阿卜杜拉·巴拉拉 (Abdulla Balalaa) 向 Al-Monitor 谈到了海湾地区的局势，以及阿联酋致力于推动水务部门私有化和 2026 年联合国水资源大会的重点。

Latest News

黎巴嫩有哪些主要人物在影响与以色列的谈判？

Joseph EID / AFP via Getty Images

“影响范围遍及全球”：五角大楼誓言追查与伊朗贸易有关的船只

STRAIT OF HORMUZ - NOVEMBER 19: In this handout photo provided by the US Navy, The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) transits the Strait of Hormuz as an MH-60S Sea Hawk helicopter from the Nightdippers of Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 5 lifts off from the flight deck November 19, 2019. The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations in support of naval operations to ensure maritime stability and security in the Central Region, connecting the M

沙拉寻求与伊朗战争保持距离，称与以色列的谈判仍在进行，但“困难重重”：你需要了解什么

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Turkish Presient Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Antalya Diplomatic Forum in Turkey April 17, 2026.

奥恩表示，在白宫发出邀请后，黎巴嫩寻求与以色列达成“永久性协议”。

Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun delivers a speech during a meeting of Pope Leo XIV with authorities, civil society and diplomatic corps at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of the capital Beirut, on November 30, 2025. (Photo by Andreas SOLARO / AFP via Getty Images)

People cross a street next to a billboard bearing the portrait of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a quote that reads "Sing Oh Iran" in Tehran on July, 9, 2025.

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队问议会：伊朗政权的核心人物是谁？

伊朗的政治体制将最高权力集中在最高领袖及其忠诚的机构网络中。

Sheikh Hikmat Salman al-Hijri is pictured at Qanawat, the headquarters of the Druze spiritual presidency, on Dec. 28, 2024, in Suwayda, Syria.

叙利亚德鲁兹派领导人希吉里呼吁建立独立实体，称国家“正走向分裂”。

叙利亚南部苏韦达省备受争议的德鲁兹派精神领袖希克迈特·希吉里称赞以色列是唯一介入阻止去年夏天动乱期间德鲁兹人被杀的一方。

TEHRAN, IRAN - JANUARY 10: The heavily damaged Tax Affairs building is pictured on January 10, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. Some areas of Tehran sustained heavy damage during ongoing protests that came to a head on January 8, amid a growing economic and political crisis sweeping the country. (Photo by Stringer/Getty Images)

Analysis

以色列评估认为，尽管抗议活动遭到镇压，特朗普仍可能选择对伊朗发动袭击。

以色列普遍认为，美国总统特朗普将选择打击德黑兰政府，以向抗议者表明美国没有抛弃他们。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 9, 2026.

从伊拉克到也门，伊朗代理人如何应对抗议活动

在席卷全国的抗议活动中，伊拉克民兵和胡塞武装越来越公开地捍卫伊朗，而真主党和巴勒斯坦团体则保持相对沉默。

IN FLIGHT - JANUARY 11: U.S. President Donald Trump takes questions from the members of the press aboard Air Force One on January 11, 2026 en route back to the White House from Palm Beach, Florida. The President spent the weekend at his private club Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images)

从网络攻击到空袭，特朗普对伊朗有很多选择。

美国前军方和情报官员表示，除了政权更迭之外，白宫还有很多其他方法可以加大对伊朗政府的压力。

Jared Szuba

由 Jared Szuba

In Washington, DC, reporting on defense, national security, military

Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Tehran, Iran on Jan. 9, 2026.

伊朗抗议活动：近650人死亡，德黑兰召见欧盟大使

伊朗召见欧洲各国大使，指责他们支持抗议活动。与此同时，伊朗全国范围内的动荡仍在继续，西方领导人纷纷声援示威者。

This picture shows a battery of Israel's Iron Dome air defence system in the southern city of Ashdod on May 12, 2023, as Israel's army and Gaza militants traded heavy cross-border fire. Israel and Gaza militants traded heavy fire today as hopes faded of securing a truce to end days of fighting that have killed dozens, all but one of them Palestinian. (Photo by Jack Guez / AFP) (Photo by JACK GUEZ/AFP via Getty Images)

以色列举行演习，为应对伊朗可能的袭击做好准备：你需要了解什么

以色列对美国可能对伊朗发动袭击保持高度警惕，因为这可能会引发伊朗对以色列的报复。

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian as they attend the 17th Summit of the Economic Cooperation Organization in Khankendi, Azerbaijan on July 4, 2025.

土耳其警告称，外国干预伊朗可能适得其反，此前特朗普暗示可能发动袭击。

安卡拉对美国可能对伊朗发动袭击的后果保持警惕，并警告称这可能会引发更广泛的地区不稳定。

An Iranian woman walks past a mural depicting a scene from the Iranian national epic "Shahnameh" in the capital Tehran on January 6, 2026. Iran's economy has been hit hard by tough international sanctions, with the national currency, the rial, losing more than a third of its value against the US dollar over the past year and inflation in double digits. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images)

伊朗：是什么引发了这波抗议浪潮？接下来会发生什么？

最初因经济状况而引发的抗议活动，越来越具有政治色彩，让人想起伊朗早期的全国性运动。

Israel's Foreign Minister Eli Cohen gives a press conference in Larnaca on December 20, 2023 talking about a humanitarian aid corridor from the Mediterranean island to war-torn Gaza. (Photo by Elisa AMOURET / AFP) (Photo by ELISA AMOURET/AFP via Getty Images)

Interview

科恩：加沙局势平静或将重启东地中海论坛和以色列-约旦项目

以色列能源部长科恩在接受《中东观察报》采访时估计，以色列和埃及之间的巨额天然气协议将巩固和平条约，并为加强安全合作、打击与穆斯林兄弟会有关联的团体和哈马斯铺平道路。

Eli Cohen

Eli Cohen

Israeli Energy Minister

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) gestures as he welcomes Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman (R) during an official ceremony at the Presidential Complex in Ankara, on June 22, 2022.

Analysis

在沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋竞争的背景下，土耳其在不与阿布扎比交涉的情况下拉拢利雅得。

土耳其在也门和加沙等关键地区安全问题上正向沙特阿拉伯靠拢，同时小心翼翼地避免与阿拉伯联合酋长国决裂。

Ezgi Akin

In Ankara, reporting on diplomacy, EU-Turkey ties, NATO

Safin HAMID / AFP via Getty Images

沙拉告诉伊拉克巴尔扎尼库尔德人，在担心阿勒颇局势蔓延之际，库尔德人对叙利亚至关重要。

叙利亚政府军与库尔德武装在阿勒颇的冲突已导致超过 14 万人流离失所，这一局势引起了邻国伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区和联邦政府领导人的关注。