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Iran

十月 5, 2026

Tehran 3:14 上午

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Analysis

墨西哥湾石油出口已经恢复，但这种复苏能持续多久？

随着德黑兰对霍尔木兹海峡的控制力减弱，中东石油出口在9月份出现反弹，但市场并未对这种可能只是昙花一现的原油复苏表示欢迎。

Samuel Wendel

由 Samuel Wendel

In Washington, DC, reporting on regional business and tech

Members of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) paramilitary forces stand guard during an election rally for the "Asaib Ahl al-Haq" movement in the capital Baghdad, on October 7, 2021.

Analysis

美国撤军后，伊朗在伊拉克获得了更多空间，也面临着更加艰难的平衡局面。

对伊朗来说，让华盛顿撤出可能是比较容易的部分，但现在它可能不得不努力将这种缺席转化为持久的影响力，并在不引发不稳定的情况下重振其盟友民兵组织。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

US President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (L) on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at Bestepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, on July 8, 2026.

特朗普的一体化政策建立在与海湾国家、土耳其的关系以及在叙利亚的成功之上。

伊朗的影响力以及再次爆发冲突的可能性，使伊拉克局势的进展变得复杂。

A Caspian Airlines McDonnell Douglas MD-83 lands at Sabiha Gokcen Airport in Istanbul, Turkey, on Aug. 17, 2014.

土耳其扣押伊朗里海航空公司客机，原因是伊朗拖欠340万美元债务。

伊斯坦布尔机场的法院下令扣押行动正值伊朗航空公司面临来自美国全面新航空制裁的日益增长的压力之际。

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Analysis

随着伊朗对霍尔木兹岛的控制力减弱，德黑兰还剩下什么筹码？

A woman crosses a street near a giant billboard erected on the facade of a building depicting a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps placing his foot on a US sea drone, reportedly seized by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, in Vanak Square in Tehran, on Sept. 24, 2026.

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

经过间接谈判，美国对伊朗实施新的制裁，目标是其武器供应。

Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles are seen on display beside a large portrait of Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei at Baharestan Square in Tehran on Sept. 28, 2026.

沙特股市跌至战时低点，因沙特阿美股价下跌，海湾石油出口反弹

伊朗里亚尔汇率跌至历史新低，石油出口压力不断增加

A man counts Iranian rial notes

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (R) and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. Dan Caine testify before the House Appropriations Committee's Defense Subcommittee at the US Capitol, on June 10, 2025, in Washington.

赫格塞斯向国会表示，有迹象表明伊朗正在研制核武器

伊朗继续将铀浓缩至纯度60%，距离武器级仅一步之遥。

A view of Iran's domestically made satellite launch vehicles (SLVs) and missiles in the Museum of Holy Defense in Tehran, Iran on April 17, 2025. The term "Holy Defense" is used to refer to Iran-Iraq war that took 8 years. (Photo by AO / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP) (Photo by AO/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

随着特朗普对协议“失去信心”，伊朗威胁该地区的美国基地

几十年来，美国一直在中东各地设立军事基地，其中规模最大的（按人员数量计算）是卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地。

President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a swearing-in ceremony for Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff in the Oval Office at the White House on May 6, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Analysis

特朗普对伊朗的耐心可能已经耗尽

关注“让美国再次伟大”阵营和鹰派阵营之间的分歧可能忽略了更大的问题；特朗普一直在举办有关伊朗外交和战略的大师班。

Andrew Parasiliti

由 Andrew Parasiliti

圣战极端主义抬头，伊朗处决9名“ISIS武装分子”：你需要知道什么

尽管伊朗长期以来一直声称通过已故将军卡西姆·苏莱曼尼发起的战役彻底消灭了伊斯兰国，但近年来该国一直在努力应对该激进组织的致命复苏。

The US Central Command Commander General Michael Kurilla speaks at the 18th IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain's capital on Nov. 19, 2022.

美国将军称以色列袭击伊朗将危及该地区的军队

即将离任的美国中央司令部将军迈克尔·埃里克·库里拉表示，如果外交手段无法遏制德黑兰的核浓缩活动，他已向特朗普政府提供了“广泛的军事应对方案”。

US President Donald Trump (C) and Vice President JD Vance (R) meet with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, on Feb. 4, 2025.

Analysis

美国等待伊朗回应，以色列军方准备“下令”发动袭击

如果德黑兰决定拒绝华盛顿提出的新核协议，总理本雅明内塔尼亚胡将必须做出自己的决定：是否打击伊朗。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

US President Donald Trump, alongside US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, participates in an "Invest America" roundtable discussion in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington on June 9, 2025.

特朗普称伊朗对核提议的回应“不可接受”，协议替代方案“可怕”

由于与伊朗的谈判似乎陷入僵局，总统唐纳德·特朗普周一表示，核协议的替代方案将“非常非常可怕”。

Iranians sit with their dogs in a park in Tehran on June 8, 2025. Iranian authorities have expanded a ban on walking dogs in public to multiple cities nationwide, citing public health, social order and safety concerns, domestic media reported on June 8. Owning and walking dogs has been a contentious topic since the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran, though there is no law outrightly banning dog ownership. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP) (Photo by ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)

Culture

伊朗不顾民众愤怒，将遛狗禁令扩大至多个省份

随着伊朗政府加强对公共空间的监管，养狗已成为新限制的焦点。

A security guard stands below a giant screen showing news footage of China's President Xi Jinping speaking virtually to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting, which was being held in India, at a shopping mall in Beijing on July 4, 2023.

Analysis

放眼东方：伊朗如何利用亚洲关系抵消西方压力

由于制裁仍然存在且核谈判陷入僵局，伊朗正在利用其上合组织成员国的身份在中亚和南亚地区建立经济和战略联系。

Sabena Siddiqui

由 Sabena Siddiqui

In Karachi, reporting on South Asia, Middle East, Iran

Iranian motorcyclist pass by a banner of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, placed next to a ballistic missile in Baharestan Square in Tehran, Iran, on September 26, 2024 on the sideline of an exhibition which marks the 44th anniversary of the start of Iran-Iraq war.

Analysis

随着美国核谈判陷入僵局，伊朗加强军事规划，向中国寻求导弹燃料

在近期美伊核外交充满不确定性的情况下，德黑兰正准备与以色列摊牌，据报道，德黑兰正在重建其导弹能力，并威胁对以色列进行毁灭性的报复。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

US President Donald Trump (R) attends a meeting with Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, during the G20 summit in Osaka on June 28, 2019.

Analysis

俄罗斯普京向特朗普提出帮助解决伊朗问题，但可能附带条件

在伊朗权衡美国提出的核协议提议之际，俄罗斯自愿发挥促进未来谈判的作用。

Elizabeth Hagedorn

由 Elizabeth Hagedorn

In Washington, DC, reporting on diplomacy, regional politics, human rights

Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, delivers a speech during a funeral ceremony after a terrorist attack, on Jan. 5, 2024, in Kerman, Iran.

伊朗称逮捕13名ISIS成员，他们因策划自杀式袭击

近年来，ISIS 的呼罗珊分支对伊朗发动了多起袭击，促使伊朗当局追捕其成员。