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Iran

十月 5, 2026

Tehran 4:00 上午

18°C

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Analysis

墨西哥湾石油出口已经恢复，但这种复苏能持续多久？

随着德黑兰对霍尔木兹海峡的控制力减弱，中东石油出口在9月份出现反弹，但市场并未对这种可能只是昙花一现的原油复苏表示欢迎。

Samuel Wendel

由 Samuel Wendel

In Washington, DC, reporting on regional business and tech

Members of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) paramilitary forces stand guard during an election rally for the "Asaib Ahl al-Haq" movement in the capital Baghdad, on October 7, 2021.

Analysis

美国撤军后，伊朗在伊拉克获得了更多空间，也面临着更加艰难的平衡局面。

对伊朗来说，让华盛顿撤出可能是比较容易的部分，但现在它可能不得不努力将这种缺席转化为持久的影响力，并在不引发不稳定的情况下重振其盟友民兵组织。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

US President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (L) on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at Bestepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, on July 8, 2026.

特朗普的一体化政策建立在与海湾国家、土耳其的关系以及在叙利亚的成功之上。

伊朗的影响力以及再次爆发冲突的可能性，使伊拉克局势的进展变得复杂。

A Caspian Airlines McDonnell Douglas MD-83 lands at Sabiha Gokcen Airport in Istanbul, Turkey, on Aug. 17, 2014.

土耳其扣押伊朗里海航空公司客机，原因是伊朗拖欠340万美元债务。

伊斯坦布尔机场的法院下令扣押行动正值伊朗航空公司面临来自美国全面新航空制裁的日益增长的压力之际。

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Analysis

随着伊朗对霍尔木兹岛的控制力减弱，德黑兰还剩下什么筹码？

A woman crosses a street near a giant billboard erected on the facade of a building depicting a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps placing his foot on a US sea drone, reportedly seized by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, in Vanak Square in Tehran, on Sept. 24, 2026.

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

经过间接谈判，美国对伊朗实施新的制裁，目标是其武器供应。

Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles are seen on display beside a large portrait of Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei at Baharestan Square in Tehran on Sept. 28, 2026.

沙特股市跌至战时低点，因沙特阿美股价下跌，海湾石油出口反弹

伊朗里亚尔汇率跌至历史新低，石油出口压力不断增加

A man counts Iranian rial notes

An oil tanker unloads imported crude oil at Qingdao port in China's eastern Shandong province on May 9, 2022.

受美国制裁和需求减弱影响，伊朗对华石油出口大幅下降

中国是伊朗迄今为止最大的石油客户，购买了伊朗伊斯兰共和国约 90% 的石油。

ranians pass by a mural that depicts the two Supreme Leaders of Iran near Enghelab (Revolution) Square in downtown Tehran, Iran on April 8, 2025.

随着美国提案逐渐成型，伊朗考虑对核妥协作出回应

伊朗表示将很快对白宫所说的“非常详细且可接受的提议”作出回应。

BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images

Analysis

如果伊朗拒绝特朗普的核协议，以色列会抓住机会发动打击吗？

由于以色列军队已准备好攻击伊朗核设施，如果德黑兰拒绝华盛顿提出的协议，以色列总理本雅明内塔尼亚胡将面临严峻的选择。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

COURTNEY BONNEAU/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

伊朗外长访问贝鲁特期间誓言“不干涉”黎巴嫩事务：你需要知道些什么

伊朗访问黎巴嫩之际，有关解除伊朗支持的真主党武装的谈判正在升温。

Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty (C) meets with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi (L) and Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Cairo on June 2, 2025.

伊朗、埃及和国际原子能机构举行会谈，德黑兰考虑美国提议：需要了解的情况

伊朗正在多个外交战线上进行接触，权衡美国的新提议，并准备接受联合国核监督机构的潜在谴责。

Pakistani soldiers wearing facemasks stand guard at the closed Pakistan-Iran border in Taftan on February 25, 2020 as fears over the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus escalate following an outbreak in neighbouring Iran. - The Iranian outbreak where at least 15 people have already died -- the highest death toll in any country outside of China -- has aggravated already frayed nerves in neighbouring Afghanistan and Pakistan. (Photo by Banaras KHAN / AFP) (Photo by BANARAS KHAN/AFP via Getty Images)

Analysis

尽管高层互访，但挥之不去的不信任仍笼罩着巴基斯坦与伊朗的关系

在南亚局势再度紧张的背景下，伊朗和巴基斯坦正处于脆弱的缓和时期，这种缓和受到边境安全担忧、地区竞争以及更紧密经济联系前景的影响。

由 Rosaleen Carroll

In Washington, DC, US, reporting on the Middle East

A picture taken on Sept. 7, 2019, shows traffic driving past a political mural at Vali Asr Square in the Iranian capital Tehran.

Analysis

随着时间的流逝，伊朗在核谈判中表现出反抗和参与的混合态度

围绕伊朗铀浓缩问题的拉锯战继续暗示美伊核谈判陷入僵局，但德黑兰方面也在允许美国检查人员进入其核设施问题上巧妙地展现出灵活性。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

This satellite image shows a nuclear reactor facility near Bushehr, Iran, that the United States believes could along with others in Iran be used to make nuclear weapons, Jan. 13, 2002.

Analysis

遭特朗普断然拒绝，内塔尼亚胡是否错失打击伊朗的机会？

以色列总理等待唐纳德·特朗普上任后才决定发动袭击，但现在美国总统希望与伊朗达成协议，阻止以色列的袭击。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

US President Donald Trump delivers remarks at the Memorial Amphitheatre in Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia, on May 26, 2025. (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

Analysis

美国和伊朗可能搁置铀浓缩问题以维持谈判

正在讨论的临时协议将使伊朗铀浓缩能力这一棘手问题的解决成为过去。

Elizabeth Hagedorn

由 Elizabeth Hagedorn

In Washington, DC, reporting on diplomacy, regional politics, human rights

The pilgrims' convoy departs from the city of Al-Dana, Syria, to Damascus Airport in order to set off to Saudi Arabia to perform the Hajj rituals on May 21, 2025.

沙特阿拉伯释放批评朝觐的伊朗神职人员：需要了解的情况

近年来，伊朗与沙特阿拉伯的关系有所改善，包括朝觐方面的合作，但伊朗在该地区的政策问题仍然存在。

Oman's Sultan Haitham bin Tariq (R) officially welcomes Iranian President Mahmoud Pezeshkian at Muscat's Al Alam Palace, on May 27, 2025.

Analysis

伊朗代表团访问阿曼和俄罗斯，因“临时”核协议浮出水面

由于美伊核谈判因不可谈判的红线而陷入僵局，德黑兰方面正在加大外交力度——伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安访问了阿曼，安全负责人阿里·阿克巴尔·艾哈迈迪安抵达俄罗斯——以推动按照自己的条件达成协议。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

A woman walks past an anti-US mural near the former US Embassy in Tehran, on May 11, 2025.

Analysis

美伊核谈判陷入僵局，海湾财团能否提供解决方案？

双方在铀浓缩这一核心问题上仍然存在分歧，阻碍了最高层面的进展。

Sabena Siddiqui

由 Sabena Siddiqui

In Karachi, reporting on South Asia, Middle East, Iran