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Iran

十月 4, 2026

Tehran 7:23 上午

20°C

Members of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) paramilitary forces stand guard during an election rally for the "Asaib Ahl al-Haq" movement in the capital Baghdad, on October 7, 2021.

Analysis

美国撤军后，伊朗在伊拉克获得了更多空间，也面临着更加艰难的平衡局面。

对伊朗来说，让华盛顿撤出可能是比较容易的部分，但现在它可能不得不努力将这种缺席转化为持久的影响力，并在不引发不稳定的情况下重振其盟友民兵组织。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

US President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (L) on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at Bestepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, on July 8, 2026.

特朗普的一体化政策建立在与海湾国家、土耳其的关系以及在叙利亚的成功之上。

伊朗的影响力以及再次爆发冲突的可能性，使伊拉克局势的进展变得复杂。

A Caspian Airlines McDonnell Douglas MD-83 lands at Sabiha Gokcen Airport in Istanbul, Turkey, on Aug. 17, 2014.

土耳其扣押伊朗里海航空公司客机，原因是伊朗拖欠340万美元债务。

伊斯坦布尔机场的法院下令扣押行动正值伊朗航空公司面临来自美国全面新航空制裁的日益增长的压力之际。

A woman crosses a street near a giant billboard erected on the facade of a building depicting a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps placing his foot on a US sea drone, reportedly seized by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, in Vanak Square in Tehran, on Sept. 24, 2026.

Analysis

随着伊朗对霍尔木兹岛的控制力减弱，德黑兰还剩下什么筹码？

战争爆发六个月后，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制力正在减弱。世界各国正逐渐适应这一局面，石油运输量正在恢复，替代路线正在拓展，而德黑兰自身的经济也正承受着维持该水道压力所带来的沉重代价。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Latest News

经过间接谈判，美国对伊朗实施新的制裁，目标是其武器供应。

Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles are seen on display beside a large portrait of Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei at Baharestan Square in Tehran on Sept. 28, 2026.

沙特股市跌至战时低点，因沙特阿美股价下跌，海湾石油出口反弹

伊朗里亚尔汇率跌至历史新低，石油出口压力不断增加

A man counts Iranian rial notes

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队抨击特朗普，加利巴夫威胁石油基础设施

Ghalibaf

An Oscar statue at the red carpet at the 96th Annual Academy Awards, Dolby Theatre, Hollywood, California, March 9, 2024.

Culture

“抵抗姿态”：加沙战争和伊朗镇压成为奥斯卡焦点

今年的奥斯卡提名影片中包括一些中东电影，这些电影以战争、政府暴力和抗议为主题，使人们更加关注该国的政治局势。

This photograph shows an Iranian national flag installed on the Beheshti Mosque that was damaged during recent public protests, in Tehran on Jan. 21, 2026.

Analysis

代理人、海上施压、权力博弈：如果美国发动打击，伊朗有哪些选择？

如果华盛顿未能实现以明确最终目标为导向的政权更迭，那么军事打击可能会使德黑兰的强硬派势力更加根深蒂固。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images

伊朗互联网封锁进入第三周，部分网络接入已开始恢复。

互联网监控组织 NetBlocks 报告称，即时通讯应用和虚拟专用网络的使用范围越来越广，但总体而言，国际连接仍然非常低，网络宣传活动也在增加。

Rafael Grossi, Director General of the IAEA, speaks during the 69th annual International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) general conference on Sept. 15, 2025 in Vienna, Austria.

Interview

格罗西：库尔德动乱导致核查工作延误，国际原子能机构寻求重返叙利亚

拉斐尔·格罗西在达沃斯接受《中东观察报》采访时表示，叙利亚政府与东北部库尔德政权之间的敌对行动减缓了国际原子能机构对该国核设施的监测。

Rafael Grossi

Rafael Grossi

IAEA Director General

People attend a pro-government rally on Jan. 12, 2026, in Tehran, Iran.

伊朗加大镇压力度，誓言“斩断”任何威胁哈梅内伊的势力

在伊朗血腥镇压骚乱后，国际社会要求追究伊朗政权责任的呼声日益高涨，而伊朗则加倍强调抗议者是“与以色列有关联的雇佣兵”。

A protester holds up a portrait of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a demonstration near the Iranian Embassy in Baghdad, on Jan. 16, 2026.

Analysis

以色列评估伊朗抗议浪潮已过，后悔未将目标对准哈梅内伊

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡或许影响了美国不打击德黑兰的决定，但几位以色列专家认为，说服美国总统特朗普暂缓行动构成了一场世代悲剧。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Pedestrians make their way along a path at Tehran Grand Bazaar, on Jan. 18, 2026 in Tehran, Iran.

伊朗断网进入第12天，被过滤的网络信息揭露了镇压行动

在伊朗，已有近 4000 人在抗议活动中丧生。由于互联网访问受限，流出的视频显示了安全部队镇压的规模。

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (R) speaks with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan (L) during the 51st session of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Istanbul, on June 21, 2025.

Analysis

土耳其严阵以待应对伊朗局势的后续影响：贸易中断、难民问题和地缘政治格局的转变

土耳其敦促德黑兰和华盛顿保持克制，因为伊朗的动荡局势和美国总统的威胁加剧了安卡拉对贸易路线中断、难民流动以及可能加强以色列的地区格局变化的担忧。

Barin Kayaoglu

由 Barin Kayaoglu

In Ankara, reporting on geopolitics and national security

A shop owner counts Iranian banknotes at a store in the capital Tehran on Jan. 7, 2026.

Analysis

伊朗经济崩溃使政权岌岌可危，新的冲击预示着动荡不安。

从六月与以色列的战争到联合国制裁，2025 年的一系列冲击为伊朗爆发抗议活动铺平了道路，因为经济自由落体式下滑，广大普通民众联合起来抗议。

Samuel Wendel

由 Samuel Wendel

In Washington, DC, reporting on regional business and tech

A Baluch Iranian man walks in Zahedan, in the southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchistan, on Dec. 18, 2025.

Analysis

伊朗的抗议活动如何重塑锡斯坦-俾路支斯坦的动荡局势

伊朗爆发抗议活动之际，锡斯坦-俾路支斯坦省潜在的教派冲突再次浮出水面。

Sabena Siddiqui

由 Sabena Siddiqui

In Karachi, reporting on South Asia, Middle East, Iran

Saudi Arabia’s defense minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman (L), meets with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran in March 2025.

Analysis

石油与可预测性：海湾阿拉伯国家为何反对伊朗政权更迭

美国对伊朗采取的任何军事行动都会增加伊朗直接或通过其盟友武装团体对海湾地区的石油和天然气基础设施进行报复的风险。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

TEHRAN, IRAN - JANUARY 12: Security forces are seen during a pro-government rally on January 12, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. Tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered in Tehran's Enqelab Square on Monday, as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, made a speech denouncing western intervention in Iran, following ongoing anti-government protests. In recent days, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened military action if Iranian security forces kill protesters. (Photo by Stringer/G

Feature

以尸体换取赎金：逃往土耳其的伊朗人讲述政权镇压和报复

在伊斯坦布尔机场转机时，他们还谈到了互联网中断、匆忙离境以及对外国干预能否提供救济的怀疑。

Ezgi Akin

In Ankara, reporting on diplomacy, EU-Turkey ties, NATO