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六月 25, 2026

Tehran 5:20 上午

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伊朗战争后霍尔木兹海峡交通恢复，油价跌破74美元。

截至美国东部时间上午 10:40，国际油价基准布伦特原油价格为每桶 73.81 美元，较周二收盘价下跌 4.2%。

An Iranian man rides his motorbike past a billboard on May 28, 2026.

Analysis

为何伊朗将军们在谈判期间加剧反美言论

伊朗军方和安全机构的领导人物认为，与华盛顿签署的备忘录并非最终协议，而是与战场现实相关的有条件安排。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

AMIRHOSSEIN KHORGOOEI / ISNA / AFP via Getty Images

Explainer

霍尔木兹海峡收费站和冻结资金对美伊和平进程构成早期考验

尽管美伊双方都在努力结束这场持续四个月的冲突，但上周美伊协议的宣布已经出现了一些早期裂痕。

Speaker of the parliament of Iran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (R), arrives at the Burgenstock resort in Obbuergen, near Lucerne, Switzerland, on June 21, 2026.

伊朗加利巴夫在阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡问题举行会谈：你需要了解什么

上周签署的美伊谅解备忘录呼吁伊朗和阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡未来的管理问题举行会谈。

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Explainer

卡塔尔爆炸事件凸显重启海湾能源流动的挑战

Qatar's Energy Minister and CEO of QatarEnergy Saad Sherida al-Kaabi speaks during a press conference in Doha on June 22, 2026.

美国和伊朗将成立黎巴嫩问题“冲突降级小组”，黎巴嫩政府被边缘化。

Cars drive past billboards showing Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (L) and his late father Ali Khamenei (R), with the slogan "Thank you, loyal Iran," erected along the highway leading to Rafik Hariri International Airport, Beirut, Lebanon, June 22, 2026.

伊朗和美国释放和平协议进展信号后，油价下跌超过3%。

MUSCAT, OMAN - JUNE 21: Oil tankers and cargo vessels remain anchored off Port Sultan Qaboos around Qaboos Port on June 21, 2026 in Muscat, Oman. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for the region's oil and gas, was effectively blockaded since the outbreak of war between the United States and Iran in late February. This week's provisional peace deal between the countries was meant to reopen the waterway to shipping traffic, but the pace of that reopening is unclear amid continued fighting in Lebano

Analysis

伊朗战争后，海湾国防企业为何将目光投向欧洲？

Illustration picture taken during the Eurosatory Defense and Security fair in Paris, France ,on June 15, 2026.

Francesco Schiavi

由 Francesco Schiavi

In Bologna, reporting on security, defense, economy, governance

AFP via Getty Images

Analysis

石油、天然气和伊朗核僵局：商业交易能否影响特朗普的考量？

随着伊朗和美国核谈判的继续，德黑兰一直在推动达成商业交易而不是军事设施的想法，提出的方案涵盖石油和天然气到航空等领域。

Samuel Wendel

由 Samuel Wendel

In Washington, DC, reporting on regional business and tech

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands amid debris outside the Soroka Hospital in the southern city of Beersheba, after it was hit by a missile fired from Iran on June 19, 2025. Israel's defence minister warned that Iran's supreme leader "can no longer be allowed to exist" after a hospital was hit in an Iranian missile strike on June 19, spiking tensions in the week-old war. (Photo by Marc Israel SELLEM / POOL / AFP) (Photo by MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Analysis

尽管以色列国防精英发出警告，内塔尼亚胡仍力主对伊朗发动袭击。

尽管以色列顾问警告不要让美国陷入战争，但总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡并未掩饰他想要推翻伊朗伊斯兰共和国的愿望。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

This handout photo made available by the Iranian Army Office on March 11, 2025 shows the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy guided-missile destroyer Baotou (133) during joint military drills between Iran, Russia, and China in the Gulf of Oman.

伊朗和俄罗斯举行海军演习，阿拉格奇向沙特外长通报核谈判情况

越来越多的迹象表明，随着达成新的伊朗核协议的势头停滞不前，美国可能即将发动军事打击。

DENMARK-NORWAY-US-FRANCE-NATO-ARMY-DEFENCE-EXERCISE Picture taken on September 24, 2025 from the French Navy frigate Bretagne shows F-18 fighter jets on the deck of the the world's largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford as both ships are taking part in the NATO Neptune Strike 2025 exercise in the North Sea. According to NATO, more than 10,000 sailors, soldiers, aviators and marines from 13 allied nations took part in the large-scale multinational enhanced Vigilance Activity, running from September 22 to

美国已做好军舰、战机和油轮的准备，应对可能持续数周的伊朗战争。

五角大楼组建了自 2003 年以来规模最大的中东打击部队，增加了 F-35、F-22、加油机、电子战飞机和指挥飞机，以及第二艘航母。

Joseph EID / AFP via Getty Images

真主党誓言保卫伊朗之际，黎巴嫩严阵以待，防范潜在的冲突蔓延。

黎巴嫩再次发现自己正为真主党卷入即将到来的美伊军事对抗做准备。

Members of the Israeli security forces check the apparent remains of an Iranian ballistic missile lying on the ground in the Golan Heights, Northern Israel, on Thursday, June 19, 2025. (Photo by Michael Giladi / Middle East Images via AFP) (Photo by MICHAEL GILADI/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

以色列加紧伊朗战争准备，并将计划严格控制在核心圈子内。

以色列军方尚未改变其针对平民的现行指导方针。

Outbound passengers arrive with their luggage at the Emirates check-in counter at the Iranian capital Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport, on July 17, 2020.

受美国可能对伊朗采取军事行动的担忧，航空公司纷纷取消航班：你需要了解什么

本周抵达德黑兰机场的航班主要表明，在与华盛顿关系日益紧张的背景下，伊朗和中东的航空公司正在飞往这个波斯国家。

US President Donald Trump speaks during a visit to the Fort Bragg US Army base on Feb. 13, 2026 in Fort Bragg, North Carolina.

由于美伊两国坚持各自的底线，达成核协议的希望逐渐渺茫。

特朗普总统不太可能批准一项有限的核协议，因为这会让人联想到他曾经鄙视的 2015 年核协议。

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, US President Donald Trump's nominee to be ambassador to Israel, testifies during his Senate Foreign Relations Committee confirmation hearing at the Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington, March 25, 2025.

Interview

哈克比证实美以在伊朗问题上立场一致，称哈马斯“迟早”会解除武装

美国驻以色列大使迈克·赫卡比在接受Al-Monitor采访时表示，2025年对伊朗核设施的袭击只是美国军队能力的预演。

A picture taken on November 10, 2019, shows an Iranian flag in Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, during an official ceremony to kick-start works on a second reactor at the facility.

随着美伊核谈判取得进展，俄罗斯加倍推进伊朗核合作

莫斯科能源部长表示，俄罗斯目前正在为伊朗布什尔核电站的新装置建造设备。

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (3rd L) and Switzerland's Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis (2nd R) attend a bilateral meeting between Switzerland and Iran during a second round of US-Iranian talks with Washington pushing Tehran to make a deal to limit its nuclear program, in Geneva on Feb. 17, 2026.

Analysis

军事姿态与脆弱的外交：美伊谈判的下一步是什么？

尖锐的警告、根深蒂固的红线和不断升级的军事信号表明，美伊核谈判的道路并不稳固。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Robin MILLARD / AFP via Getty Images

Analysis

以色列担心伊朗试图拖延时间，但认为美国仍有可能发动袭击。

一位以色列高级官员告诉《中东观察报》：“我们还不清楚那里发生了什么，希望伊朗方面没有为了拖延时间而故意拖延美国方面。双方之间的分歧巨大，无法弥合。”

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense