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Iran

十月 4, 2026

Tehran 4:02 上午

19°C

Members of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) paramilitary forces stand guard during an election rally for the "Asaib Ahl al-Haq" movement in the capital Baghdad, on October 7, 2021.

Analysis

美国撤军后，伊朗在伊拉克获得了更多空间，也面临着更加艰难的平衡局面。

对伊朗来说，让华盛顿撤出可能是比较容易的部分，但现在它可能不得不努力将这种缺席转化为持久的影响力，并在不引发不稳定的情况下重振其盟友民兵组织。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

US President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (L) on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at Bestepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, on July 8, 2026.

特朗普的一体化政策建立在与海湾国家、土耳其的关系以及在叙利亚的成功之上。

伊朗的影响力以及再次爆发冲突的可能性，使伊拉克局势的进展变得复杂。

A Caspian Airlines McDonnell Douglas MD-83 lands at Sabiha Gokcen Airport in Istanbul, Turkey, on Aug. 17, 2014.

土耳其扣押伊朗里海航空公司客机，原因是伊朗拖欠340万美元债务。

伊斯坦布尔机场的法院下令扣押行动正值伊朗航空公司面临来自美国全面新航空制裁的日益增长的压力之际。

A woman crosses a street near a giant billboard erected on the facade of a building depicting a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps placing his foot on a US sea drone, reportedly seized by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, in Vanak Square in Tehran, on Sept. 24, 2026.

Analysis

随着伊朗对霍尔木兹岛的控制力减弱，德黑兰还剩下什么筹码？

战争爆发六个月后，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制力正在减弱。世界各国正逐渐适应这一局面，石油运输量正在恢复，替代路线正在拓展，而德黑兰自身的经济也正承受着维持该水道压力所带来的沉重代价。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Latest News

经过间接谈判，美国对伊朗实施新的制裁，目标是其武器供应。

Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles are seen on display beside a large portrait of Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei at Baharestan Square in Tehran on Sept. 28, 2026.

沙特股市跌至战时低点，因沙特阿美股价下跌，海湾石油出口反弹

伊朗里亚尔汇率跌至历史新低，石油出口压力不断增加

A man counts Iranian rial notes

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队抨击特朗普，加利巴夫威胁石油基础设施

Ghalibaf

Joseph EID / AFP via Getty Images

真主党誓言保卫伊朗之际，黎巴嫩严阵以待，防范潜在的冲突蔓延。

黎巴嫩再次发现自己正为真主党卷入即将到来的美伊军事对抗做准备。

Members of the Israeli security forces check the apparent remains of an Iranian ballistic missile lying on the ground in the Golan Heights, Northern Israel, on Thursday, June 19, 2025. (Photo by Michael Giladi / Middle East Images via AFP) (Photo by MICHAEL GILADI/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

以色列加紧伊朗战争准备，并将计划严格控制在核心圈子内。

以色列军方尚未改变其针对平民的现行指导方针。

Outbound passengers arrive with their luggage at the Emirates check-in counter at the Iranian capital Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport, on July 17, 2020.

受美国可能对伊朗采取军事行动的担忧，航空公司纷纷取消航班：你需要了解什么

本周抵达德黑兰机场的航班主要表明，在与华盛顿关系日益紧张的背景下，伊朗和中东的航空公司正在飞往这个波斯国家。

US President Donald Trump speaks during a visit to the Fort Bragg US Army base on Feb. 13, 2026 in Fort Bragg, North Carolina.

由于美伊两国坚持各自的底线，达成核协议的希望逐渐渺茫。

特朗普总统不太可能批准一项有限的核协议，因为这会让人联想到他曾经鄙视的 2015 年核协议。

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, US President Donald Trump's nominee to be ambassador to Israel, testifies during his Senate Foreign Relations Committee confirmation hearing at the Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington, March 25, 2025.

Interview

哈克比证实美以在伊朗问题上立场一致，称哈马斯“迟早”会解除武装

美国驻以色列大使迈克·赫卡比在接受Al-Monitor采访时表示，2025年对伊朗核设施的袭击只是美国军队能力的预演。

A picture taken on November 10, 2019, shows an Iranian flag in Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, during an official ceremony to kick-start works on a second reactor at the facility.

随着美伊核谈判取得进展，俄罗斯加倍推进伊朗核合作

莫斯科能源部长表示，俄罗斯目前正在为伊朗布什尔核电站的新装置建造设备。

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (3rd L) and Switzerland's Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis (2nd R) attend a bilateral meeting between Switzerland and Iran during a second round of US-Iranian talks with Washington pushing Tehran to make a deal to limit its nuclear program, in Geneva on Feb. 17, 2026.

Analysis

军事姿态与脆弱的外交：美伊谈判的下一步是什么？

尖锐的警告、根深蒂固的红线和不断升级的军事信号表明，美伊核谈判的道路并不稳固。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Robin MILLARD / AFP via Getty Images

Analysis

以色列担心伊朗试图拖延时间，但认为美国仍有可能发动袭击。

一位以色列高级官员告诉《中东观察报》：“我们还不清楚那里发生了什么，希望伊朗方面没有为了拖延时间而故意拖延美国方面。双方之间的分歧巨大，无法弥合。”

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

A missile launches from IRIS Sabalan, an Alvand-class frigate of the Iranian Navy, during the Velayat 91 drill in the Gulf of Oman on January 1, 2013. The Velayat 91 drill is a sixday Iranian naval exercise held in late December 2012 and early January 2013 across the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman, and the northern Indian Ocean to test naval readiness and secure strategic waterways. (Photo by Mohammadali Najib / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)

俄罗斯、中国、伊朗将在霍尔木兹海峡举行联合海军演习：你需要了解哪些信息

此次演习正值三国加强联系之际，而美国对伊朗的经济和军事压力也在不断加大。

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (L) and Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht-Ravanchi on a flight to Muscat, Oman, to participate in talks with the US over Tehran's nuclear program, Feb. 5, 2026.

Analysis

伊朗谈判团队内部：阿拉格奇、塔赫特-拉万奇寻求策略性接触

在阿曼举行第一轮会谈后，德黑兰和华盛顿之间谨慎的外交努力正缓慢推进，人们的注意力转向了那些肩负着引导中东地区最重要谈判之一重任的人。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Iranian protesters block a street as a slogan against Iran's supreme leader is spray-painted nearby during a demonstration in Shiraz, Iran, on Jan. 10, 2026.

Analysis

伊朗如何利用数字压制和与中国的科技联系来镇压异议

尽管伊朗的街头抗议活动已基本平息，但斗争已转移到数字领域，在那里，由服务器、卫星和集中控制组成的复杂基础设施正被用来压制异议。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Steve Witkoff, US special envoy to the Middle East, (C) Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), (L) and Jared Kushner listen as US Vice President JD Vance speaks.

Analysis

特朗普为何将伊朗谈判的希望寄托于军方领导人？

白宫已调动美国高级军事指挥官来推动与对手的复杂谈判，但他们能否帮助推进特朗普的政策要求？

Jared Szuba

由 Jared Szuba

In Washington, DC, reporting on defense, national security, military