Iraq - AL-MONITOR: The Middle Eastʼs leading independent since 2012

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Iraq

四月 5, 2026

Baghdad 8:45 下午

20°C

A police speed boat patrols the port as oil tankers and high speed crafts sit anchored at Muscat Anchorage near the Strait of Hormuz on March 30, 2026 in Muscat, Oman.

Analysis

受制于霍尔木兹海峡，海湾国家能否重塑未来的能源流动，绕过伊朗的咽喉要道？

由于美以伊战争扰乱了全球约 20% 的石油供应，专家指出，重新推动开发霍尔木兹海峡的替代能源既带来了机遇，也带来了挑战。

Samuel Wendel

由 Samuel Wendel

In Washington, DC, reporting on regional business and tech

A member of the Popular Mobilization Forces patrols along a concrete wall at the Iraqi-Syrian border in Al-Qaim, west of Iraq, on Jan. 23, 2026.

叙利亚在关闭11年后重新开放重要过境点，此举有助于伊拉克在战争中出口石油。

伊拉克和叙利亚都表现出了在石油出口方面进行合作的意愿，而霍尔木兹海峡的中断使得这个问题变得更加紧迫。

US journalist Shelly Kittleson poses for a picture in Baghdad on March 31, 2026.

谢莉·基特尔森遭疑似伊朗支持的民兵组织绑架，暴露了伊拉克政府的软弱无力。

美国记者雪莉·基特尔森被绑架事件凸显了伊朗支持的武装团体在巴格达控制范围之外的巨大影响力。

Members of the Popular Mobilization Units stand guard along the Iraqi-Syrian border in Al-Qaim, west of Iraq, on Jan. 23, 2026.

叙利亚遭受伊拉克无人机袭击，打击黎巴嫩边境的走私隧道

叙利亚边境发生的这些事件，是在伊朗及其在伊拉克的代理人对叙利亚过渡政府发出威胁之后发生的。

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Analysis

伊朗战争冲击能源安全，石油资源丰富的海湾国家或面临电力短缺。

A general view of South Pars gas field facilities in the southern Iranian port town of Assaluyeh, on the Gulf, Nov. 19, 2015.

Samuel Wendel

由 Samuel Wendel

In Washington, DC, reporting on regional business and tech

Analysis

储能保障土耳其经济稳定，但长期战争会危及脆弱的经济。

Sedat Suna/Getty Images

Barin Kayaoglu

由 Barin Kayaoglu

In Ankara, reporting on geopolitics and national security

土耳其证实伊拉克军队撤离，北约因伊朗战争而撤军。

A handing over of command ceremony at Union III Camp in the Green Zone of the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, on May 22, 2025.

Analysis

伊朗自战争爆发以来首次对伊拉克库尔德武装发动袭击，此举是对美国盟友的警告。

An Iranian Kurdish peshmerga member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran inspects the damage sustained at the Azadi Camp following an Iranian cross-border attack in the town of Koye, east of Erbil district, on March 3, 2026.

Amberin Zaman

由 Amberin Zaman

Reporting on geopolitics, minorities, human rights, culture

Supporters of incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani wave national flags in front of a screen displaying his portrait as they celebrate following the announcement of preliminary election results in Baghdad on Nov. 12, 2025.

Analysis

伊拉克下一届政府将如何影响美伊对抗格局

上周，数百万伊拉克人前往投票站投票，但新政府的组建可能还需要数月时间。

Elizabeth Hagedorn

由 Elizabeth Hagedorn

In Washington, DC, reporting on diplomacy, regional politics, human rights

A delivery person rides a motorcycle past election billboards for candidates and blocs competing in Iraq's upcoming November parliamentary election, including incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, displayed along a street in Baghdad on Oct. 3, 2025.

伊拉克什叶派联盟召开会议，商讨苏丹尼在选举中胜出后的战略。

上周的选举最终结果显示，总理穆罕默德·什叶派苏丹尼领导的政党在议会中赢得了 46 个席位，是所有政党中最多的，但他能否继续担任目前的职务尚无定论。

AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP via Getty Images

Analysis

土耳其将在伊拉克大选后应对伊朗在该国持续的影响力。

安卡拉将不得不应对伊朗支持的各派系在伊拉克的影响力，同时维护与巴格达的战略关系和持续合作。

Barin Kayaoglu

由 Barin Kayaoglu

In Ankara, reporting on geopolitics and national security

SAFIN HAMID/AFP via Getty Images

伊拉克总理苏达尼在选举计票中似乎领先，但其上台之路仍不明朗。

即使穆罕默德·什叶派苏丹尼领导的政党联盟获胜，他也不能保证继续留任。

People walk past electoral campaign posters ahead of Iraq's parliamentary elections in central Baghdad on Nov. 6, 2025.

Analysis

伊拉克大选结果会重塑伊朗在巴格达的角色吗？

德黑兰对巴格达的影响力正面临新的挑战，疲惫的盟友、美国的压力以及战后地区格局的变化正在重新定义伊朗在其最具战略意义的邻国的影响力。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Iraqi voters wait to cast their ballots at the Al-Ghufran school, turned into a polling station in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul on Nov. 11, 2025 during Iraq's parliamentary elections.

伊拉克大选结束，初步迹象显示投票率较低：你需要了解哪些信息

据官方统计，截至中午，投票率仅为 23.9%，这表明伊拉克的投票率可能再次创下历史新低。

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) and Iraq's prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, during the signing ceremony of memorandums of understanding between Iraq and Turkey, in Ankara on May 8, 2025.

Analysis

土耳其着眼于伊拉克局势的延续，而选举将考验苏丹亲安卡拉的势头。

安卡拉在巴格达新获得的影响力，建立在水资源交易和秘密安全协调之上，将在选举中面临第一个重大考验。

Barin Kayaoglu

由 Barin Kayaoglu

In Ankara, reporting on geopolitics and national security

Shiite Muslim cleric Moqtada Sadr gives a speech in Iraq's central holy shrine city of Najaf on Aug. 30, 2022.

伊拉克大选：萨德尔在投票前一周再次呼吁抵制选举

伊拉克即将举行的选举暴露了什叶派政治家之间的巨大分歧，穆克塔达·萨德尔缺席，总理穆罕默德·什叶派苏丹尼脱离了协调框架。

sign

土耳其与伊拉克签署石油换水协议：你需要了解什么

安卡拉和巴格达之间的这项具有里程碑意义的协议建立了一种融资机制，将伊拉克石油收入用于土耳其建造的水利基础设施。

A woman walks past electoral billboards in central Baghdad on Oct. 19, 2025, ahead of parliamentary elections in Iraq on Nov. 11.

伊拉克在全国大选前几周遭遇一波政治暴力浪潮。

当局正在加强即将到来的投票前的安保工作，由于民众对政治进程普遍感到不满，此次投票率可能再次偏低。

Iraqi national security adviser Qasim al-Araji meets with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in Tehran, on Oct. 20, 2025.

伊拉克安全部长访问伊朗，加强边境和铁路合作：需要了解的信息

伊拉克国家安全顾问卡西姆·阿拉吉此次访问伊朗的重点是处理边境库尔德人问题以及两国间长期延误的铁路连接。

US army soldiers, part of the Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) the US-led coalition against the Islamic State (IS) group, walk around at the K1 Air Base northwest of Kirkuk in northern Iraq before a planned US pullout on March 29, 2020.

尽管美军向库尔德斯坦地区转移，伊拉克仍保留部分军事顾问

伊拉克总理穆罕默德·什叶派·苏丹尼表示，约 300 名美国军事顾问将留在伊拉克安巴尔省的一个重要基地，密切关注伊斯兰国在安巴尔沙漠的活动，防止该圣战组织在幼发拉底河流域卷土重来。