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Iran

十月 4, 2026

Tehran 9:45 下午

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Analysis

墨西哥湾石油出口已经恢复，但这种复苏能持续多久？

随着德黑兰对霍尔木兹海峡的控制力减弱，中东石油出口在9月份出现反弹，但市场并未对这种可能只是昙花一现的原油复苏表示欢迎。

Samuel Wendel

由 Samuel Wendel

In Washington, DC, reporting on regional business and tech

Members of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) paramilitary forces stand guard during an election rally for the "Asaib Ahl al-Haq" movement in the capital Baghdad, on October 7, 2021.

Analysis

美国撤军后，伊朗在伊拉克获得了更多空间，也面临着更加艰难的平衡局面。

对伊朗来说，让华盛顿撤出可能是比较容易的部分，但现在它可能不得不努力将这种缺席转化为持久的影响力，并在不引发不稳定的情况下重振其盟友民兵组织。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

US President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (L) on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at Bestepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, on July 8, 2026.

特朗普的一体化政策建立在与海湾国家、土耳其的关系以及在叙利亚的成功之上。

伊朗的影响力以及再次爆发冲突的可能性，使伊拉克局势的进展变得复杂。

A Caspian Airlines McDonnell Douglas MD-83 lands at Sabiha Gokcen Airport in Istanbul, Turkey, on Aug. 17, 2014.

土耳其扣押伊朗里海航空公司客机，原因是伊朗拖欠340万美元债务。

伊斯坦布尔机场的法院下令扣押行动正值伊朗航空公司面临来自美国全面新航空制裁的日益增长的压力之际。

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Analysis

随着伊朗对霍尔木兹岛的控制力减弱，德黑兰还剩下什么筹码？

A woman crosses a street near a giant billboard erected on the facade of a building depicting a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps placing his foot on a US sea drone, reportedly seized by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, in Vanak Square in Tehran, on Sept. 24, 2026.

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

经过间接谈判，美国对伊朗实施新的制裁，目标是其武器供应。

Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles are seen on display beside a large portrait of Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei at Baharestan Square in Tehran on Sept. 28, 2026.

沙特股市跌至战时低点，因沙特阿美股价下跌，海湾石油出口反弹

伊朗里亚尔汇率跌至历史新低，石油出口压力不断增加

A man counts Iranian rial notes

Afghan migrants who were living in Iran as refugees deboard a bus after being deported back to Afghanistan at the zero point between Afghanistan and Iran in the Herat province on Feb. 23, 2025.

Analysis

伊朗驱逐阿富汗人标志着国家安全警务的新时代

受战后安全战略驱动，伊朗正以创纪录的速度驱逐阿富汗移民，此举有可能引发与塔利班的外交纠纷、造成伊朗国内劳工中断以及加剧边境地区的人道主义危机。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

An Emirates Boing 777 lands while an Iran Air plane is taxiing, Dubai's International Airport, Sept. 14, 2017.

以色列战争后，伊朗重新开放领空，允许国内和国际航班

当局周三开放了除伊斯法罕和大不里士机场以外的所有机场。

Palestinians carry their belongings as they flee Gaza City, May 16, 2025.

Analysis

内塔尼亚胡希望特朗普向加沙发出最后通牒，以对抗极右翼

这份最后通牒是他向华盛顿提出的几项愿望之一，旨在反击极右翼势力的威胁，即如果与哈马斯达成停火，政府就会垮台。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Reza Najafi arrives to an extraordinary IAEA's Board of Governors meeting at the agency's headquarters in Vienna, Austria on June 23, 2025. (Photo by Joe Klamar / AFP) (Photo by JOE KLAMAR/AFP via Getty Images)

Analysis

限制核查人员还是谈判筹码：伊朗为何暂停与国际原子能机构的合作

伊朗的最新举动引发了人们对其核计划监督的怀疑，并可能意味着其将脱离长期以来所遵守的核不扩散框架。

由 Rosaleen Carroll

In Washington, DC, US, reporting on the Middle East

People stand near a monument to Iran's late former leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, as thousands of Iranians attend the funeral ceremony for approximately 60 people killed in Israeli strikes on Iran, on June 28, 2025, in Tehran, Iran.

Analysis

伊朗神职人员对特朗普的死亡威胁如何破坏外交努力

伊朗最高宗教机构发布宗教裁决，要求处死唐纳德·特朗普总统，这进一步危及了伊朗和美国之间本已渺茫的外交解冻前景。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Iranian rial banknotes bearing a portrait of the late founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, sit on the stand of an Iraqi money dealer on June 19, 2014, in Arbil, Iraq.

伊朗里亚尔下跌3%，德黑兰正努力应对战争后果

尽管最近的冲突即将结束，但由于官员们对美国的猛烈抨击，里亚尔自五月以来已大幅下跌。

Analysis

伊朗政权逮捕700多人，转向国内以阻止以色列渗透

在与以色列进行为期 12 天的战争期间，情报工作出现失误，伊朗随即展开了大规模的内部镇压，包括大规模逮捕和加速处决，批评人士将此举比作“受伤的蛇”的报复性反击。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

A member of the US Airforce looks on near a Patriot missile battery at the Prince Sultan air base in Al-Kharj, in central Saudi Arabia on February 20, 2020. (Photo by Andrew CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / POOL / AFP) (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Analysis

国防与外交：伊朗报复乌代德基地事件后海湾国家重新调整策略

随着德黑兰袭击乌代德，以及特朗普斡旋的停火协议阻止了局势升级，海湾国家担心未来可能发生冲突，权衡各自的弱点和选择。

Francesco Schiavi

由 Francesco Schiavi

In Bologna, reporting on security, defense, economy, governance

MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/AFP via Getty Images

Analysis

东山再起：内塔尼亚胡会借伊朗战争之机赢得新选举吗？

以色列总理本雅明内塔尼亚胡完全有能力利用针对伊朗的军事行动和美国的支持来赢回大量以色列选民。

Mazal Mualem

由 Mazal Mualem

In Tel Aviv, reporting on politics

Former French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin arrives to attend a church service for former French President Jacques Chirac at the Saint-Sulpice church in Paris on September 30, 2019. - Former French President Jacques Chirac died on September 26, 2019 at the age of 86.

Interview

法国前总理称特朗普在中东有“巨大机遇”

近期宣布成立新政党的多米尼克·德维尔潘在接受《Al-Monitor》独家书面采访时表示，法国在促进区域合作方面发挥着至关重要的作用。

Dominique de Villepin

Dominique de Villepin

Former French prime minister

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House, Washington, DC, Feb. 4, 2025.

Analysis

特朗普呼吁结束对内塔尼亚胡的审判与更广泛的加沙协议有何关联

这项协调一致的努力包括与哈马斯达成协议以及扩大《亚伯拉罕协议》，还设想特朗普获得诺贝尔和平奖，内塔尼亚胡获得赦免。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani, Permanent Representative of Iran to the UN, speaks during a press conference at the United Nations headquarters on June 16, 2025 in New York City.

Interview

伊朗愿意与地区财团在美国核谈判中转让浓缩铀

伊朗驻联合国大使表示，如果与美国达成协议，伊朗将考虑转让浓缩铀库存并吸引外部投资能源领域，但伊朗不愿意接受对其导弹计划或国内浓缩铀的限制。

Amir Saeid Iravani

Amir Saeid Iravani

Permanent Representative of Iran to the UN