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Iran

十月 3, 2026

Tehran 11:42 下午

22°C

Members of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) paramilitary forces stand guard during an election rally for the "Asaib Ahl al-Haq" movement in the capital Baghdad, on October 7, 2021.

Analysis

美国撤军后，伊朗在伊拉克获得了更多空间，也面临着更加艰难的平衡局面。

对伊朗来说，让华盛顿撤出可能是比较容易的部分，但现在它可能不得不努力将这种缺席转化为持久的影响力，并在不引发不稳定的情况下重振其盟友民兵组织。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

US President Donald Trump meets Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (L) on the sidelines of the NATO Summit at Bestepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, on July 8, 2026.

特朗普的一体化政策建立在与海湾国家、土耳其的关系以及在叙利亚的成功之上。

伊朗的影响力以及再次爆发冲突的可能性，使伊拉克局势的进展变得复杂。

A Caspian Airlines McDonnell Douglas MD-83 lands at Sabiha Gokcen Airport in Istanbul, Turkey, on Aug. 17, 2014.

土耳其扣押伊朗里海航空公司客机，原因是伊朗拖欠340万美元债务。

伊斯坦布尔机场的法院下令扣押行动正值伊朗航空公司面临来自美国全面新航空制裁的日益增长的压力之际。

A woman crosses a street near a giant billboard erected on the facade of a building depicting a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps placing his foot on a US sea drone, reportedly seized by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, in Vanak Square in Tehran, on Sept. 24, 2026.

Analysis

随着伊朗对霍尔木兹岛的控制力减弱，德黑兰还剩下什么筹码？

战争爆发六个月后，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制力正在减弱。世界各国正逐渐适应这一局面，石油运输量正在恢复，替代路线正在拓展，而德黑兰自身的经济也正承受着维持该水道压力所带来的沉重代价。

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Latest News

经过间接谈判，美国对伊朗实施新的制裁，目标是其武器供应。

Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles are seen on display beside a large portrait of Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei at Baharestan Square in Tehran on Sept. 28, 2026.

沙特股市跌至战时低点，因沙特阿美股价下跌，海湾石油出口反弹

伊朗里亚尔汇率跌至历史新低，石油出口压力不断增加

A man counts Iranian rial notes

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队抨击特朗普，加利巴夫威胁石油基础设施

Ghalibaf

Young wheat shoots emerge from moist soil in farmland near Zakho, Iraqi Kurdistan region, Dec. 19, 2025.

伊朗战争冲击化肥供应，惠誉警告称价格可能上涨约25%。

由于霍尔木兹海峡关闭，粮食价格上涨和供应减少，引发了全球以及中东地区的粮食安全担忧。

A missile launches from IRIS Sabalan, an Alvand-class frigate of the Iranian Navy, during the Velayat 91 drill in the Gulf of Oman on Jan. 1, 2013.

五角大楼：伊朗导弹而非水雷才是霍尔木兹海峡航运的主要威胁。

美国最高国防官员表示，美国本周的空袭摧毁了伊朗制造新型弹道导弹的能力。

A banner depicting Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader and son of slain leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is displayed on Enghelab (Revolution) Square, Tehran, as people gather for the funerals of commanders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the army and others killed in US and Israeli strikes on Iran, March 11, 2026.

Analysis

以色列和海湾国家担心，随着伊朗考虑突破核武器计划，特朗普可能会对战争失去兴趣。

如果目前的战争以伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队胆子更大而告终，许多人担心伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊会像朝鲜一样，加大力度寻求核武器以阻止未来的袭击。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Iranian nationals arrive in Turkey after passing through the Razi-Kapikoy border crossing in Van, northeastern Turkey, on March 3, 2026.

Feature

伊朗人进入土耳其后，心中萦绕的更多是政权镇压而非战争的阴影。

尽管伊朗经历了近两周的战争和猛烈的空袭，但许多前往土耳其的伊朗人表示，让他们难以摆脱的创伤是伊朗政权对近期抗议活动的残酷镇压，而不是轰炸。

Ezgi Akin

In Ankara, reporting on diplomacy, EU-Turkey ties, NATO

Dmytro Chubenko, spokesperson of the Kharkiv prosecutor, and his assistant look at a Russian Shahed drone shot down by Ukraine's air defense forces in a field used for the storage of Russian missiles in Kharkiv, on April 30, 2025.

乌克兰派遣团队协助海湾国家对抗伊朗无人机：你需要了解什么

乌克兰在击落伊朗的“沙赫德”无人机方面拥有丰富的经验，这使得海湾国家对乌克兰的专业知识和硬件表现出了浓厚的兴趣。

A security forces member with a picture of Iran's new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, watches over demonstrators as they gather for a rally in support of the new supreme leader at Enghelab Square on March 9, 2026 in Tehran, Iran.

Analysis

特朗普对伊朗可能在国内发动袭击不以为然，但专家认为风险正在增加。

这场战争加剧了人们的担忧，即伊朗特工或以伊朗名义行事的人可能会以美国为目标。

Elizabeth Hagedorn

由 Elizabeth Hagedorn

In Washington, DC, reporting on diplomacy, regional politics, human rights

Retired Israeli general and executive director of Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies Amos Yadlin attends a session at the Manama Dialogue security conference in the Bahraini capital, on Dec. 5, 2020.

Interview

亚德林：以色列发动战争的目标是削弱伊朗，而非立即推翻伊朗政权。

亚德林告诉《中东观察报》，以色列领导人意识到，战争结束后，华盛顿将决定以色列是否实现了其战争目标。

A man looks at the site of overnight Israeli airstrikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut on March 12, 2026.

黎巴嫩召见伊朗特使，就真主党-伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队袭击事件进行磋商：你需要了解哪些信息

此前，真主党向以色列发射了 200 多枚火箭弹，与此同时，伊朗也发射了一连串导弹，引发了以色列在黎巴嫩的暴力冲突升级。

Commercial vessels are pictured offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026. AFP via Getty Images

随着油价飙升至100美元以上，墨西哥湾油轮再次遭到袭击：你需要了解什么

这是油价一周内第二次突破每桶100美元大关。

This photo taken in Tehran shows a statement by Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei being televised on March 12, 2026. Iran's new supreme leader ordered the vital Strait of Hormuz oil shipping lane to remain closed on March 12, while US President Donald Trump said stopping the Islamic republic's "evil empire" was more important than crude prices. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who was reportedly injured in an air strike, has yet to appear publicly since his nomination as supreme leader, and his defiant

哈梅内伊在开场白中誓言“复仇”，并坚持关闭霍尔木兹海峡。

伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊没有出现在镜头前，他的讲话由国家媒体的播音员代为宣读。

People sit in a cafe outside the Apple Store in Dubai on May 8, 2025. (Photo by Giuseppe CACACE / AFP) (Photo by GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP via Getty Images)

伊朗威胁美国科技和银行业后，花旗银行和汇丰银行下令从海湾地区撤离人员。

阿联酋拥有迪拜互联网城，这里聚集了超过4000家企业，其中包括谷歌、微软、甲骨文、戴尔、亚马逊、万事达卡和维萨等美国科技巨头。其中一些公司在阿布扎比也设有办事处。

A navy vessel is seen sailing in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which much of the world's oil and gas passes, on March 1, 2026.

特朗普就霍尔木兹海峡地雷问题警告伊朗，与此同时，一位参议员提醒美国可能正接近地面战争。

据最新报道，在美国总统威胁称如果石油运输受到干扰，将对伊朗采取更严厉的打击之后，伊朗已开始在霍尔木兹海峡布雷。