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A person uses a lighter to set fire to a banner during demonstrations in Hamedan, Iran, on Jan. 1, 2026.

Fear or force? How regime in Iran plans to confront swelling protests

Iran's leadership is projecting defiance in the face of fast-spreading protests and US warnings. But behind the scenes, the cost-benefit calculus of repression appears more fraught than in past crises.

A correspondent in Tehran

由 A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) gestures as he welcomes Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman (R) during an official ceremony at the Presidential Complex in Ankara, on June 22, 2022.

Analysis

在沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋竞争的背景下，土耳其在不与阿布扎比交涉的情况下拉拢利雅得。

土耳其在也门和加沙等关键地区安全问题上正向沙特阿拉伯靠拢，同时小心翼翼地避免与阿拉伯联合酋长国决裂。

Ezgi Akin

In Ankara, reporting on diplomacy, EU-Turkey ties, NATO

Israel's Foreign Minister Eli Cohen gives a press conference in Larnaca on December 20, 2023 talking about a humanitarian aid corridor from the Mediterranean island to war-torn Gaza. (Photo by Elisa AMOURET / AFP) (Photo by ELISA AMOURET/AFP via Getty Images)

Interview

科恩：加沙局势平静或将重启东地中海论坛和以色列-约旦项目

以色列能源部长科恩在接受《中东观察报》采访时估计，以色列和埃及之间的巨额天然气协议将巩固和平条约，并为加强安全合作、打击与穆斯林兄弟会有关联的团体和哈马斯铺平道路。

Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Kermanshah, Iran on January 8, 2026. The nationwide protests started in Tehran's Grand Bazaar against the failing economic policies in late December, which spread to universities and other cities, and included economic slogans, to political and anti-government ones. (Photo by Kamran / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)

Analysis

以色列对伊朗局势动荡保持警惕，认为“未来几天”对伊朗政权至关重要。

以色列方面的评估表明，虽然伊朗领导层尚未表现出完全失去控制的迹象，但随着抗议活动的持续，局势可能会发生变化。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

US President Donald Trump addresses a House Republican retreat at The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts on Jan. 6, 2026 in Washington, DC.

随着伊朗抗议活动愈演愈烈，特朗普对美国干预伊朗问题的表态前后矛盾。

特朗普总统将数十名抗议者的死亡归咎于踩踏事件，但视频显示伊朗安全部队正在向抗议者开火。

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Closed-door breakdown in Syria-Kurdish talks foreshadowed Aleppo clashes

Bakr ALKASEM / AFP via Getty Images

Amberin Zaman

由 Amberin Zaman

Reporting on geopolitics, minorities, human rights, culture

沙拉告诉伊拉克巴尔扎尼库尔德人，在担心阿勒颇局势蔓延之际，库尔德人对叙利亚至关重要。

Safin HAMID / AFP via Getty Images

阿联酋因担忧穆斯林兄弟会而削减英国学生资助

JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images

United Arab Emirates

随着抗议活动加剧，阿联酋、卡塔尔和土耳其飞往伊朗的航班被取消。

Kamran / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images

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Protesters filled streets across Iran

New rallies in Iran as son of shah calls for city centres to be seized

Agence France-Presse

A Russian vessel arrives at the Simon's Town Naval base ahead of the BRICS Plus countries which include China, Russia and Iran for a joint naval exercises in South Africa's, in Cape Town, South Africa, January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Esa Alexander

China, Russia, Iran start 'BRICS Plus' naval exercises in South African waters

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FILE PHOTO: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gestures during a joint press conference with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (not pictured) at the Prime Minister's Office, during Rubio's visit, in Jerusalem, September 15, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard/Pool/File Photo

Israel's Netanyahu hopes to 'taper' Israel off US military aid in next decade

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Syrian military police stand guard in Ashrafiyah neighbourhood in Aleppo, Syria, January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri

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叙利亚库尔德高级官员福扎·优素福表示，与大马士革开战对所有人来说都是双输的局面。

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科恩：加沙局势平静或将重启东地中海论坛和以色列-约旦项目

Israel's Foreign Minister Eli Cohen gives a press conference in Larnaca on December 20, 2023 talking about a humanitarian aid corridor from the Mediterranean island to war-torn Gaza. (Photo by Elisa AMOURET / AFP) (Photo by ELISA AMOURET/AFP via Getty Images)

Analysis

Stay a step ahead of your colleagues.

Analysis

以色列对伊朗局势动荡保持警惕，认为“未来几天”对伊朗政权至关重要。

Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Kermanshah, Iran on January 8, 2026. The nationwide protests started in Tehran's Grand Bazaar against the failing economic policies in late December, which spread to universities and other cities, and included economic slogans, to political and anti-government ones. (Photo by Kamran / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Analysis

从红海到非洲之角：也门如何暴露了沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋之间的分歧

HRH Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman received HH Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, president of the United Arab Emirates, in Riyadh, on Sept. 3, 2025.

Amberin Zaman

由 Amberin Zaman

Reporting on geopolitics, minorities, human rights, culture

Analysis

受特朗普和抗议活动的鼓舞，以色列看到了对抗伊朗政权的机会。

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands amid debris outside the Soroka Hospital after it was hit by a missile fired from Iran, Beersheba, Israel, June 19, 2025.

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Analysis

在沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋竞争的背景下，土耳其在不与阿布扎比交涉的情况下拉拢利雅得。

Ezgi Akin

In Ankara, reporting on diplomacy, EU-Turkey ties, NATO

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) gestures as he welcomes Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman (R) during an official ceremony at the Presidential Complex in Ankara, on June 22, 2022.

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