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Turkey is headed for watershed elections on May 14 that could, depending on its outcome, deal the final blow to its wobbly democracy. The odds are fully stacked in favor of the country's autocratic president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Economist magazine last week caused an uproar when it published a special report on "Erdogan's Empire" with the title "Turkey's Looming Dictatorship" on its cover.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says he wants to meet his longtime nemesis Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Many see Ankara's recent efforts to fix relations with Damascus as part of Erdogan's election strategy, amid promises to send back millions of unwanted Syrian refugees. Others say it's part of an effort to crush the Syrian Kurds' autonomous entity. Either way, normalizing Assad without holding him to account for his crimes will hurt the Syrian people and those countries which engage with him, warns the UK's Syria envoy Jonathan Hargreaves.

The conflict in Ukraine has had a profound impact on geopolitical balances across the globe. The effects are certainly being felt in Syria, where Russia has been propping up the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Russia has been pressuring Assad to respond to Turkish overtures, which are primarily underpinned by Ankara"s determination to crush the US-backed Syrian Kurdish statelet in northeast Syria.

On Dec. 23, three Kurdish activists were murdered in the heart of Paris by a 69 year old Frenchman with a history of violence against foreigners. But many Kurds believe the suspect was put up to the job by Turkey's national intelligence agency the MIT. French authorities have launched an investigation but are treating the affair as a racist crime. The MIT has become increasingly powerful in recent years, commanding its own fleet of drones and targeting Kurdish militants and other "enemies of the state" on foreign soil.

Turkey has been threatening since last month to launch a major ground invasion against the Kurds of northeast Syria. More than a month has passed and Russia and the United States have aired their objections to Turkey's plans. Turkey has yet to strike. Does this mean that it has caved to US and Russian pressure? Syria expert Fabrice Balanche thinks not. 

Turkey has been piling pressure on Sweden to sever its ties with the Kurdish-led administration in northeast Syria. Sweden's new government has finally agreed to that condition and to resume arms exports to Ankara. The demands were made in exchange for Turkey's approval for Sweden and Finland's NATO membership. Swedish academic Paul Levin believes that these concessions are a diplomatic win for Turkey but that Ankara's behavior has lost it many friends in his country.

With the world's attention focused on Ukraine, Turkey has escalated its campaign against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) across its own borders in Iraq and Syria. Meghan Bodette, director of research at the Kurdish Peace Institute in Washington DC, tells Al-Monitor that Turkey is increasingly targeting activists, politicians and other civilian figures associated with the Kurdish political movement founded by imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. This is because Turkey fears the legitimacy such individuals lend to Kurdish aspirations. 

Protests in Iran are continuing despite a harsh crackdown by security forces. Human rights groups say that at least 201 people have died in the violence that was triggered by the death in custody of a Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini. The 22-year-old was detained by the morality police for supposedly breaking rules on mandatory Islamic-style covering.

Al-Monitor’s business correspondent Salim Essaid discusses Saudi Arabia’s investments in esports; trends in cryptocurrency markets in the Gulf; AI governance in the UAE; the region’s evolution as a hub in global climate policy; and Al-Monitor Pro coverage.

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