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十月 20, 2026

District of Columbia 1:22 上午

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US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago club on Dec. 29, 2025, in Palm Beach, Florida.

Explainer

特朗普的支持能否让以色列右翼团结在内塔尼亚胡周围？

尽管分析人士表示，总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡的反对者批评了唐纳德·特朗普总统的支持，但这不太可能对选举结果产生重大影响。

shoppers walking through the Tajrish Bazaar, a traditional market in Tehran

Analysis

伊朗的石油生命线即将枯竭，它能否挺过特朗普的经济围困？

10 月份，该国最后一批储存在美国海军封锁范围之外的原油库存降至零，这加剧了德黑兰在经济困境日益加剧的情况下面临的风险。

Samuel Wendel

由 Samuel Wendel

In Washington, DC, reporting on regional business and tech

US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at the Oncenter Convention Center in Syracuse, New York, on Oct. 9, 2026.

随着特朗普再次威胁要撤出皮克克斯山，与伊朗进行外交谈判的窗口可能正在关闭。

以色列记者本·卡斯皮特报道，以色列仍然对大马士革保持警惕；我们的德黑兰记者和安贝林·扎曼解释了伊朗和土耳其如何试图利用阿塞拜疆的头巾争议；卡塔尔最高外交官向黎巴嫩提供能源援助，贝娅特丽丝·法哈特从贝鲁特报道。

Israeli troops stand guard on the dividing line between the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights and Syrian, near Majdal Shams, July 16, 2025.

Analysis

“问题与解决方案”：内塔尼亚胡与沙拉的通话暴露了以色列在叙利亚的困境

以色列领导人透露，他去年曾与叙利亚总统进行过会谈，但会谈陷入僵局，以色列在叙利亚领土上加强安全区建设，凸显了他对沙拉的不信任。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Latest News

特朗普排除了美军进驻伊朗的可能性，但并未排除对皮克克斯山进行空袭的可能性。

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on Oct. 7, 2026 in Washington, DC.

以色列总统会见外长王毅，此前有报道称中国与伊朗的军事集结有关。

Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia, Baku, Azerbaijan, Oct. 15, 2026.

阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·阿尔福赞是谁？他是一名沙特公民，被指控窃听 OpenAI 的会议。

Abdulrahman Alfozan in an undated photo

Exclusive

为了赢得沙特阿拉伯的支持，内塔尼亚胡可能在大选前对也门发动袭击。

A giant electoral poster for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party with the slogan "no surrender" is displayed on the facade of a building in Tel Aviv on Sept. 29, 2026

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

A picture taken on March 12, 2017, shows an Iranian tanker docking at the platform of the oil facility in the Khark Island, on the shore of the Gulf.

为何封锁哈尔克岛可能成为伊朗面临的最大经济威胁

该岛是伊朗的能源中心，占伊朗石油出口的 90%，也是伊朗重要军事设施的所在地。

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent arrives to attend an event in the East Room of the White House, Washington, DC, March 5, 2026.

美国考虑在霍尔木兹海峡危机期间放松对伊朗的石油制裁：你需要了解什么

美国财政部可能采取的措施将减轻伊朗原油的压力，因为华盛顿正寻求抵消伊朗实际上关闭霍尔木兹海峡造成的供应损失。

An Iranian security force officer stands guard next to a huge billboard of Iran's newly nominated supreme leader Ayatollah Mojataba Khamenei (pointing) during Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day rally, a commemoration in support of the Palestinian people on the last Friday of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, in Tehran on March 13, 2026. On February 28, Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran, killing its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (photo bottom L) and triggering a war that spread across the M

Analysis

随着伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队加强控制，以色列认为伊朗政权更迭之路漫长。

以色列官员告诉《中东观察报》，虽然大量伊朗领导人被杀显然正在破坏该政权的稳定，但推翻该政权可能还需要很长时间。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Lin Jian

特朗普推迟北京峰会之际，中国将向伊朗、黎巴嫩、伊拉克和约旦提供援助。

就在特朗普总统周二宣布推迟原定于3月下旬对中国的访问之际，这项援助计划也随之公布。

Black smoke rises following an airstrike, as Iranians take part in the Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day rally, a commemoration in support of the Palestinian people on the last Friday of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, in Tehran on March 13, 2026.

尽管特朗普声称伊朗希望达成协议，但停火仍遥遥无期。

唐纳德·特朗普总统对于这场已经持续三周的战争可能会持续多久，仍然发出模棱两可的信息。

An Israeli self-propelled howitzer artillery gun fires rounds toward southern Lebanon from a position in the upper Galilee in northern Israel near the border on March 15, 2026.

以色列是否计划在黎巴嫩设立缓冲区，还是会将缓冲区扩展到利塔尼以外？

据报道，以色列方面的主要担忧是，真主党的精锐部队拉德万突击队可能会渗透到边境，袭击以色列北部社区。

A missile launches from IRIS Sabalan, an Alvand-class frigate of the Iranian Navy, during the Velayat 91 drill in the Gulf of Oman on Jan. 1, 2013.

五角大楼：伊朗导弹而非水雷才是霍尔木兹海峡航运的主要威胁。

美国最高国防官员表示，美国本周的空袭摧毁了伊朗制造新型弹道导弹的能力。

A banner depicting Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader and son of slain leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is displayed on Enghelab (Revolution) Square, Tehran, as people gather for the funerals of commanders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the army and others killed in US and Israeli strikes on Iran, March 11, 2026.

Analysis

以色列和海湾国家担心，随着伊朗考虑突破核武器计划，特朗普可能会对战争失去兴趣。

如果目前的战争以伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队胆子更大而告终，许多人担心伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊会像朝鲜一样，加大力度寻求核武器以阻止未来的袭击。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Iranian nationals arrive in Turkey after passing through the Razi-Kapikoy border crossing in Van, northeastern Turkey, on March 3, 2026.

Feature

伊朗人进入土耳其后，心中萦绕的更多是政权镇压而非战争的阴影。

尽管伊朗经历了近两周的战争和猛烈的空袭，但许多前往土耳其的伊朗人表示，让他们难以摆脱的创伤是伊朗政权对近期抗议活动的残酷镇压，而不是轰炸。

Ezgi Akin

In Ankara, reporting on diplomacy, EU-Turkey ties, NATO

Retired Israeli general and executive director of Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies Amos Yadlin attends a session at the Manama Dialogue security conference in the Bahraini capital, on Dec. 5, 2020.

Interview

亚德林：以色列发动战争的目标是削弱伊朗，而非立即推翻伊朗政权。

亚德林告诉《中东观察报》，以色列领导人意识到，战争结束后，华盛顿将决定以色列是否实现了其战争目标。

Fighters lift flags of Iraq and paramilitary groups, including al-Nujaba and Kataib Hezbollah, during a funeral in Baghdad for five militants killed a day earlier in a US strike in northern Iraq, on Dec. 4, 2023.

美国警告伊拉克境内存在绑架威胁，此前伊朗支持的民兵袭击了一处外交设施。

伊拉克境内一些与美国有关的地点遭到伊朗支持的武装团体的袭击，促使巴格达加强了其防空力量。

A navy vessel is seen sailing in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which much of the world's oil and gas passes, on March 1, 2026.

特朗普就霍尔木兹海峡地雷问题警告伊朗，与此同时，一位参议员提醒美国可能正接近地面战争。

据最新报道，在美国总统威胁称如果石油运输受到干扰，将对伊朗采取更严厉的打击之后，伊朗已开始在霍尔木兹海峡布雷。