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Analysis

Israel sees long road to Iran regime change as IRGC tightens grip

While the large number of Iranian leaders killed is clearly destabilizing the regime, its toppling could still take a long time, Israeli officials told Al-Monitor.

An Iranian security force officer stands guard next to a huge billboard of Iran's newly nominated supreme leader Ayatollah Mojataba Khamenei (pointing) during Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day rally, a commemoration in support of the Palestinian people on the last Friday of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, in Tehran on March 13, 2026. On February 28, Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran, killing its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (photo bottom L) and triggering a war that spread across the M
An Iranian security officer stands guard next to a billboard of new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojataba Khamenei (pointing) during a rally for Al-Quds Day, a commemoration in support of the Palestinian people on the last Friday of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, in Tehran on March 13, 2026. — AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — The killing of Iran’s National Security Council head, Ali Larijani, and the leader of its paramilitary Basij force, Gholamreza Soleimani, were intended to pave the way for a popular uprising to topple the Islamist regime, Israeli officials told Al-Monitor. 

As the two men were considered responsible for killing thousands of demonstrators after mass protests erupted in Iran in late December 2025, their assassination was intended to ease Iranians' fear of violent repression if the protests resume.

The Israeli military also killed Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib in an overnight airstrike in the Iranian capital, Tehran, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced Wednesday morning.

In another development on Wednesday, Israel struck a gas processing facility at southern Iran's South Pars field, the world's largest. Citing an unnamed Israeli official, Channel 12 reported that the strike was carried out in coordination with the United States, which “gave its approval for the operation.”

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