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六月 23, 2026

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Lebanese army forces deploy in the village of Bir al-Salasel in southern Lebanon on June 15, 2026. Iran's foreign ministry on June 15 said the US must ensure that Israel commits to stopping the war in Lebanon under a deal agreed upon with the US to end the Middle East war. Lebanon was pulled into the conflict in early March when Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah launched rocket attacks on Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran's supreme leader, prompting Israeli strikes and a ground invasion. (Pho

Analysis

试点区域成为以色列-黎巴嫩会谈的核心，特朗普向内塔尼亚胡施压

第五轮会谈将于周二开始，以色列准备从至少一个“试点区”撤军，允许黎巴嫩军队控制该地区。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike in Tyre, Lebanon, on June 9, 2026.

Analysis

随着美国调整黎巴嫩战略，以色列发现自己被边缘化了。

华盛顿和德黑兰达成的协议将伊朗和黎巴嫩战区联系起来，并建立了一种冲突降级机制——事先并未与以色列协商。

Rina Bassist

由 Rina Bassist

In Paris, reporting on Israeli politics and European affairs

Aamir QURESHI / AFP via Getty Images

Analysis

美伊协议达成后，巴基斯坦还能继续扮演地区调解人的角色吗？

巴基斯坦在促成结束伊朗和美国之间战争的协议后，成为了关键的调解人，但它未来能否在中东维持这一角色，将取决于一系列地区和地缘政治因素。

Sabena Siddiqui

由 Sabena Siddiqui

In Karachi, reporting on South Asia, Middle East, Iran

This photograph shows a Turkish national flag at the Razi-Kapikoy border crossing with Iran next to a black flag on the Iranian side, following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in eastern Turkey on March 2, 2026.

Analysis

土耳其着眼于从美伊协议中获益，安卡拉试图在德黑兰和华盛顿之间寻求平衡。

土耳其将美伊谅解备忘录视为降低地区溢出风险、重振与德黑兰的贸易以及获得外交喘息之机的机会。

Barin Kayaoglu

由 Barin Kayaoglu

In Ankara, reporting on geopolitics and national security

Latest News

Explainer

制裁解除与重建：中国如何从特朗普-伊朗协议中受益

特朗普称，黎巴嫩总统约瑟夫·奥恩将于本月访问白宫。

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun speaks during a government meeting at the Presidential Palace in Beirut, Lebanon, on September 5, 2025.

Culture

土耳其埃尔多安会见东正教宗主教，力促哈尔基神学院重新开放

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Orthodox Patriarch of Bartholomew at the presidential complex, Ankara, Turkey, June 16, 2026.

“让叙利亚去对付真主党”：特朗普批评以色列，敦促沙拉帮助解决黎巴嫩问题

EVIAN-LES-BAINS, FRANCE - JUNE 16: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a bilateral meeting with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on the sidelines of the G7 summit, on June 16, 2026 in Evian-les-Bains, France. Leaders from the Group of 7 (G7) countries convened in Evian, France, near the Swiss border, for their annual summit to discuss challenges to peace and security for Ukraine and Europe, the situation in the Middle East, and other geopolitical issues. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Get

Ronen Zvulun / AFP via Getty Images

内塔尼亚胡担心在特朗普推行伊朗外交政策时被排除在外

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡表示，他对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普暂停“自由计划”并转向与伊朗进行谈判并不感到惊讶，但分析人士表示，华盛顿可能没有充分考虑以色列在与德黑兰谈判中的担忧。

Traffic passes a billboard depicting Iranian ballistic missiles in service, with text in Arabic reading "the honest [person's] promise" and in Persian "Israel is weaker than a spider's web," Valiasr Square, Tehran, April 15, 2024. ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images.

Analysis

随着战争狂热消退，中情局关于伊朗导弹的报告削弱了内塔尼亚胡的影响力。

这些发现使人们对以色列在战争中取得的成果产生了怀疑，并给内塔尼亚胡的竞选策略带来了压力，尤其是在大选之前。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of Iran meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi of China in Beijing on May 6, 2026. Credit: Telegram

Analysis

特朗普寻求退出伊朗之际，中国巩固了对伊朗的支持。

中国明白特朗普多么渴望结束这场冲突。但时机至关重要：如果在特朗普周三抵达中国之前未能达成协议，北京将更有利于主导议程。

Joyce Karam

由 Joyce Karam

Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

黎巴嫩和以色列计划举行第三轮会谈，但内塔尼亚胡和奥恩会面仍遥遥无期。

美国似乎正在推动黎巴嫩总统约瑟夫·奥恩和以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡会面，但黎巴嫩政府表示，只要以色列继续对黎巴嫩发动袭击，会面就不会发生。

Lionel BONAVENTURE / AFP via Getty Images)

欧盟称，与霍尔木兹海峡危机相关的能源成本已飙升至350亿美元以上。

尽管欧洲对经由霍尔木兹海峡输送的天然气的依赖程度有限，但与霍尔木兹海峡中断相关的全球能源价格上涨正在推高欧洲的进口成本。

Amirhossein KHORGOOEI / ISNA / AFP via Getty Images

Analysis

以色列担心特朗普在霍尔木兹海峡问题上寻求胜利，却回避伊朗核问题。

尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普不断向伊朗施压，要求其重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，但以色列担心这位美国领导人会决定止损，放弃核威胁问题。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 18: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (R), French President Emmanuel Macron (L), and European leaders at the White House on August 18, 2025 in Washington, DC. President Trump hosted President Zelensky at the White House for a bilateral meeting and an expanded meeting with European leaders to discuss a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

随着法美分歧加剧，马克龙对特朗普的霍尔木兹行动表示质疑

法国总统马克龙抨击美国总统特朗普单方面采取行动重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，而不是与伊朗进行协调努力。

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies during a Senate Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government hearing in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on April 22, 2026 in Washington, DC.

美国制裁伊朗转移石油收益的影子银行渠道

最新制裁出台之际，特朗普政府正在权衡伊朗提出的结束战争的最新方案。

Ibrahim AMRO / AFP via Getty Images

Analysis

如果没有退出策略，以色列将面临气焰嚣张的真主党，在伊朗问题上的选择也将十分有限。

尽管唐纳德·特朗普总统仍未决定是否再次打击伊朗，但以色列军队却在黎巴嫩泥潭中越陷越深，真主党也得到了加强。

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

Iraq's prime minister-designate, Ali al-Zaidi, at Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's office on April 28, 2026.

特朗普致电祝贺伊拉克候任总理扎伊迪：你需要了解哪些信息

唐纳德·特朗普总统曾公开批评此前被认为与伊朗关系密切的候选人努里·马利基，但现在却对伊拉克主要什叶派联盟提出的新候选人表示欢迎。

This photo obtained by AFP from the Iranian news agency Tasnim shows an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) boat allegedly taking part in an operation to seize ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, on April 21, 2026.

随着霍尔木兹海峡对峙加剧，特朗普在伊朗战争中面临三条道路。

随着霍尔木兹海峡对峙加剧，特朗普必须在军事升级、有限的外交协议或继续对伊朗施压之间做出选择。

President Donald Trump gives a speech during the State Arrival Ceremony on the South Lawn on April 28, 2026, in Washington.

特朗普与内塔尼亚胡、普京通话，伊朗施压行动升级

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普分别与以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京通了电话，讨论了伊朗局势以及延长停火的可能性。