![A picture taken on October 28, 2019 shows Syrian bikers riding past a damaged car at the site of a suspected US-led operation against Islamic State (IS) chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi the previous day, on the edge of the small Syrian village of Barisha in the country's opposition-held northwestern Idlib province. - US President Donald Trump announced that Baghdadi, the elusive leader of the jihadist group and the world's most wanted man, was killed in the early hours of Octobe 27 in an overnight US raid near th](/sites/default/files/styles/article_header/public/almpics/2019/10/GettyImages-1178650382.jpg/GettyImages-1178650382.jpg?h=a5ae579a&itok=8g0e4Npq)
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics. On Twitter: @GulfStateAnalyt
![A picture taken on October 28, 2019 shows Syrian bikers riding past a damaged car at the site of a suspected US-led operation against Islamic State (IS) chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi the previous day, on the edge of the small Syrian village of Barisha in the country's opposition-held northwestern Idlib province. - US President Donald Trump announced that Baghdadi, the elusive leader of the jihadist group and the world's most wanted man, was killed in the early hours of Octobe 27 in an overnight US raid near th](/sites/default/files/styles/article_header/public/almpics/2019/10/GettyImages-1178650382.jpg/GettyImages-1178650382.jpg?h=a5ae579a&itok=8g0e4Npq)
![Libyan National Army (LNA) members, commanded by Khalifa Haftar, pose for a picture as they head out of Benghazi to reinforce the troops advancing to Tripoli, in Benghazi, Libya April 7, 2019. REUTERS/Esam Omran Al-Fetori - RC1AEB991490](/sites/default/files/styles/article_header/public/almpics/2019/05/RTS2GOO7.jpg/RTS2GOO7.jpg?h=a5ae579a&itok=njA39CE0)
Giorgio Cafiero
![Soccer Football - AFC Asian Cup - Semi-Final - Qatar v United Arab Emirates - Mohammed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates - January 29, 2019 Qatar's Hasan Al Haydos scores their third goal REUTERS/Suhaib Salem - RC142CB29E70](/sites/default/files/styles/article_header/public/almpics/2019/01/RTS2CRYQ.jpg/RTS2CRYQ.jpg?h=a5ae579a&itok=fx1EGoiS)
Giorgio Cafiero
![A construction crane is seen as smoke rises from Yarmouk Palestinian camp in Damascus, Syria April 21, 2018. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho - RC16C2D4AC60](/sites/default/files/styles/article_header/public/almpics/2019/01/RTX5UP5N.jpg/RTX5UP5N.jpg?h=a5ae579a&itok=Tz4KKBpP)
Giorgio Cafiero
![Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani meets with Lebanon's President Michel Aoun as he arrives to attend the Arab Economic and Social Development summit meeting in Beirut, Lebanon January 20, 2019. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir - RC1CA2F76AB0](/sites/default/files/styles/article_header/public/almpics/2019/01/RTS2BFE0.jpg/RTS2BFE0.jpg?h=a5ae579a&itok=gGPiRxJn)
Giorgio Cafiero
![Security guards stand in front of the United Arab Emirates embassy during its reopening in Damascus, Syria December 27, 2018. REUTERS/Omar Sanadiki - RC1F43BEB420](/sites/default/files/styles/article_header/public/almpics/2019/01/RTX6K0EF.jpg/RTX6K0EF.jpg?h=a5ae579a&itok=Z7BcFki7)
Giorgio Cafiero
![Kuwait's Foreign Minister Sabah Al Khalid Al Sabah attends a meeting of Foreign Ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 30, 2017. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser - RC1E163FE170](/sites/default/files/styles/article_header/public/almpics/2019/01/RTX33EUP.jpg/RTX33EUP.jpg?h=a5ae579a&itok=skbHHabj)
Giorgio Cafiero
![Turkish police forensic experts examine the roof of the residence of Saudi Arabia's Consul General Mohammad al-Otaibi as a part of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi investigation, in Istanbul, Turkey October 17, 2018. REUTERS/Osman Orsal - RC16743EB6C0](/sites/default/files/styles/article_header/public/almpics/2019/01/RTX6FHDR.jpg/RTX6FHDR.jpg?h=9c9e1f54&itok=JmPTFrWL)
Giorgio Cafiero
![The Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC) Leaders are seen ahead of their Summit meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia December 9, 2018. Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY - RC1A2BB78CC0](/sites/default/files/styles/article_header/public/almpics/2018/12/RTX6HTGS.jpg/RTX6HTGS.jpg?h=a5ae579a&itok=Y9qeMGo9)
Giorgio Cafiero
![Kuwait's Foreign Minister Sabah Al Khalid Al Sabah gestures during a news conference with Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, following the annual summit of GCC, in Kuwait City, Kuwait, December 5, 2017. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed - RC16BFA38D60](/sites/default/files/styles/article_header/public/almpics/2018/12/RTX3LQAZ.jpg/RTX3LQAZ.jpg?h=a5ae579a&itok=IdUUNP9d)
Giorgio Cafiero
![Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani speaks to the country's consultative Shoura council in Doha, Qatar, November 6, 2018. Qatar News Agency/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. - RC1FF5F57E20](/sites/default/files/styles/article_header/public/almpics/2018/11/RTS24PDI.jpg/RTS24PDI.jpg?h=a5ae579a&itok=sGyYsLiB)
Giorgio Cafiero
![RTX2HEVN.jpg](/sites/default/files/styles/article_header/public/almpics/2018/10/RTX2HEVN.jpg/RTX2HEVN.jpg?h=a5ae579a&itok=WmBbuVMq)
Giorgio Cafiero