On Feb. 3, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif astounded Israel when he said in an interview on a German TV network: “If the Palestinians are happy with the solution [an Israel-Palestinian peace deal] then nobody outside Palestine could prevent that from taking place.” Though his statement was initially mistranslated as allowing for Iranian recognition of Israel, the corrected translation is still one of the mildest statements by any Iranian official since the start of the Iranian revolution. Dubbed by Tehran the “Little Satan,” second only to the “Great Satan” — the United States — Israel is an enemy whose name has been unmentionable and whose obliteration had to be declared necessary at least once every couple of weeks.
Zarif’s statement took the Israeli media and public by surprise, but not the country’s decision-makers. In a recent closed meeting, a senior Israeli military official told Al-Monitor that a “dramatic development is taking place in Iran.” A seasoned Israeli defense official took it a step further, calling the developments in Iran “historic.”
Using high-quality intelligence, Israel’s defense establishment has been monitoring Iran closely, analyzing it in the context of an intimate acquaintance with its background, circumstances and history. No one in the Israel Defense Forces, the military’s Intelligence Directorate, the Mossad or the Ministry of Defense plans to go dancing in the streets just yet. However, the sounds and images coming out of Tehran are inspiring great hope among defense officials. Something real is going on there, they say, adding that this is no act. Searching for a path, Iran is deliberating and struggling in a way we have not been accustomed to seeing.
This article does not deal with Israel’s official political and diplomatic stances. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to issue warnings and sound alarms, and he will not cease to do so until Iran and the world powers reach a final agreement on the Iranian nuclear program. This is his historic calling. When all is said and done, only the quality and meticulousness of the agreement will determine whether Iran will cement its position as a nuclear-threshold state or forgo this dream. Up until now, what Israeli defense officials expected had remained an open question. Based on many talks in recent weeks with the highest-ranking officials in Israel’s defense establishment, the following is a glimpse into what they think.
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