An American delegation led by US Syria envoy James Jeffrey has arrived in Turkey for July 22-23 meetings with its Turkish counterparts to make progress in plans for a proposed safe zone, which is expected to provide a buffer between Turkey’s border area and parts of northern Syria controlled by Kurdish groups that Turkey considers a threat to its national security. The critical talks are expected to focus on five controversial points.

Moreover, the timing of the talks is telling because of three recent developments. One is that the leaves of Turkish soldiers serving along the border east of the Euphrates River have been canceled. Also, military activities have increased along the border area facing Kobani, which is under Syrian Kurdish rule. Finally, military fortifications around the area have increased expectations of an imminent Turkish operation in northeast Syria.

The operational picture northeast of Syria indicates absolute US aerial dominance. Turkey has assembled two armored brigades, two mechanized brigades and two commando brigades on the Suruc-Akcakale front for a grand-scale, corps-sized offensive military operation with a depth of 40 kilometers (25 miles).

It is essential to provide close air support to ground forces with combat planes, attack helicopters and armed drones. This means Turkey will have to persuade the United States to allow access to the airspace. During the 72-day-long al-Bab siege during Operation Euphrates Shield, the Turkish army bitterly learned the importance of close air support in Syria. A US green light is therefore essential. It is impossible for Turkey to conduct a unilateral military move east of the Euphrates bypassing the United States; thus, there is a necessity to get US approval for any operation in northeastern Syria.