Recent statements by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have created lots of talk that OPEC is considering a long-term agreement with Russia and possibly other non-OPEC members. However, the future of a potential pact between Russia and OPEC is quite unclear.

Russia is considering a contract of 10-20 years, rather than its current annual agreement. The present deal is part of the so-called OPEC-plus arrangement that allows non-OPEC members to participate in oil production cuts designed to increase oil prices and stabilize the international market.

So far, the OPEC-plus partners have managed to boost oil prices. Nevertheless, Moscow prefers to be very cautious when discussing the future of Russian-OPEC/Russian-Saudi cooperation in the hydrocarbon market. Thus, when commenting on Mohammed’s statements, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov would say only that Russia discusses many issues with Saudi Arabia, including oil sector development. He avoided discussing the topic of a long-term agreement itself.

One factor Russia is no doubt mulling over is the potential for contradictions between Moscow and Riyadh. While believing in the necessity to cooperate and control the oil market, each country sees the prospects of this control in a slightly different way. The Russian experts Al-Monitor interviewed believe the Saudi kingdom might have no upper price limit at which it would want to curb production. Or, at least, the maximum Saudi price is much higher than that set by Russia, which is about $70 per barrel. Riyadh is expected to seek the highest maximum price possible to facilitate the future initial public offering of Saudi Aramco, fund Saudi economic reforms and finance Mohammed’s adventures in Yemen, where Saudi proxies are fighting Iran-backed Houthi rebels.