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Ankara could misplay its hand again

Despite hostile remarks from Ankara, the only way to deal with the Kurdish independence referendum is diplomacy, seasoned diplomats warn.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's leaves after an interview with Reuters Editor-in-Chief Steve Adler and Reuters Chief Correspondent Parisa Hafezi at The Peninsula hotel on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in Manhattan, New York, U.S. September 21, 2017. REUTERS/Darren Ornitz - RC1C6B1C2FF0
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan leaves after an interview with Reuters at The Peninsula Hotel on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York, Sept. 21, 2017. — REUTERS/Darren Ornitz

Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani appears to have painted himself into a corner with his independence referendum. Turkey is more than happy with this and pleased that the KRG referendum was rejected by the international community.

However, Barzani has let the Kurdish genie out of the bag, and Ankara will have to manage this with diplomatic subtlety to not end up with another regional debacle on its hands.

Seasoned diplomats, taking into account that there have been so many Turkish policy failures in the Middle East since 2011 due to miscalculations and mistaken predictions, warn that Ankara could end up misplaying its hand again.

One major risk is that Turkey’s aggressive approach to the Iraqi Kurds will result in uniting diverse Kurdish groups in Iraq and Syria against Turkey even if these groups have major disagreements among themselves.

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