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Diplomacy Over Military Action: The Path to Peace in Syria

The United States should engage regional powers on a diplomatic solution and not arm the rebels or establish a no-fly zone.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (L) gestures as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov tries to fix his translation equipment during a joint news conference after their meeting in Moscow May 7, 2013. Russia and the United States agreed on Tuesday to try to arrange an international conference this month on ending the civil war in Syria, and said both sides in the conflict should take part. REUTERS/Mladen Antonov/Pool (RUSSIA - Tags: POLITICS CONFLICT) - RTXZE4K

The crisis in Syria is clearly getting out of control. Refugees threaten to overwhelm neighboring countries, Israel’s Air Force has struck government targets, the regime has been accused of using chemical weapons and outside militias have joined the Syrian combatants in an increasingly brutal stalemate. The time is now for the international community to take action. But, in the absence of serious multilateral diplomacy, simply arming the opposition and enforcing a no-fly zone, as most American pundits and politicians argue, will only prolong the bloodshed. Obama has been right to push for negotiations with Russia, the Assad regime and the opposition. Peace in Syria will only come with a US-led international effort that includes Russia, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Assad regime, the opposition and others. 

The view that arming rebels or enforcing a no-fly zone will hasten regime defeat fails to take into account Syria’s complex makeup and the mindset of the belligerents. Perhaps 20% to 40% of the Syrian population (mainly minority Alawites, Christians, Kurds, Druse and many Sunni middle- and upper-class members) supports the Assad regime because they have convinced themselves, rightly or wrongly, that they face extermination if the rebels win. The Assad propaganda machine encourages this alarm. Regardless of the validity of this fear, it drives these minority groups to regard Assad’s survival as synonymous with their own. Thus, military support measures to the rebels will only build solidarity among regime supporters as well as straining America’s military.  

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