Turkish opposition leader barred from data center as mistrust in data grows

Growing mistrust in Turkey’s official inflation data fueled political tensions last week as the main opposition leader was barred from entering the building of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), the government agency tasked with compiling and sharing various data.

Shortly after the TUIK released the latest inflation figures Dec. 3, Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu sped to the TUIK headquarters to seek answers amid doubts over the inflation data. The institute said consumer prices rose 3.5% in November from the previous month, while pundits had expected a rate of about 5%. Security guards speaking from behind the iron bars of the TUIK’s gated entrance turned the CHP leader away, saying they were following instructions. The head of the institute works directly under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The dramatic depreciation of the Turkish lira has sharply stoked prices in Turkey amid growing suspicions of TUIK bias in measuring inflation. A group of independent economists known as the Inflation Research Group has made an alternative measurement, turning up results that dwarf the official figures. Though the group’s methodology is open to question, its work has increasingly attracted public attention and irked the TUIK. In February, the TUIK filed a criminal complaint against the group for attempting to defame the institute. 

The official inflation figures are of crucial importance for the populace as they bear on wage, salary and pension hikes as well as rents and taxes. The soaring inflation has been eroding the purchasing power of large labor groups that often lack collective bargaining rights or the organizational power to secure pay rises in line with the inflation. About 20.5 million people live on wages and salaries in Turkey, while more than 10 million, including retirees, widows and orphans, rely on pensions from the state.