Syria may be the main topic of discussion between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump at the pair's July 16 summit in Helsinki, according to sources cited by Russia's Kommersant newspaper. Moscow has already passed along to Washington a two-page document that could serve as a draft for a bilateral communique the presidents are expected to present at the end of the summit next week. 

Syria is one of the few items on the agenda that could lead to actual agreements between Putin and Trump. The outline of any deal on Syria, though still blurred, can be discerned from recent trends in Syria. Any agreement will involve a trade-off: In return for fully withdrawing its troops from Syria and for giving up its demands to remove Bashar al-Assad’s government from power, the United States wants Russia to be held responsible for limiting Iranian influence in Syria.

In fact, some aspects of the secret agreements between Russia and the United States are already being implemented. For instance, take the Syrian regime’s attack, beginning June 18, on the opposition's southern front in Daraa and Quneitra provinces. This attack, which took place in the southwest de-escalation zone secured by Russia, Jordan and the United States, was only possible when it became certain that the United States would not respond to cease-fire violations with force. The US Embassy in Amman sent a letter June 24 to leaders of the Southern Front factions stating that the opposition should not expect any support from the United States. That same day, the Russian air force joined the Syrian army offensive.

Israel and Jordan also gave Moscow the green light to conduct the operation in Daraa and Quneitra provinces, under the condition that only Syrian government forces would be deployed and that all pro-Iran groups — primarily Lebanon's Hezbollah — would be removed from those areas.