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5 reasons Iran is staying out of eastern Ghouta

Iran’s apparent low profile on the military operations in Afrin and eastern Ghouta has raised questions about its policy toward the Syrian war.

After weeks of heavy fighting between the Russian-backed Syrian army and rebel groups in eastern Ghouta, the Syrian government has managed to bring over 90% of the strategic Damascus suburb under its control. The development comes as the result of a deal between Russia and the rebel groups, based on which the rebel groups agreed to evacuate the area and transfer their remaining forces to the rebel-held city of Idlib in the country’s northwest. Now, with the radical group Jaish al-Islam also reportedly beginning to leave its enclave in Douma, President Bashar al-Assad’s government is just one step away from its most significant victory after retaking Aleppo in December 2016.

Since the start of Operation Damascus Steel in eastern Ghouta in February, Russia began to actively support the regime both by providing air support for the Syrian army and starting to negotiate with the rebel groups over evacuation deals. At the diplomatic level, Moscow prevented the United Nations Security Council from passing a resolution that would have tied the Syrian government’s hands in fighting the militant groups.

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