New chapter in Iran-Turkey ties could have major impact on Syria
While the closer Turkey-Iran alignment on regional issues is not likely to fully mean the same thing in Iraq as in Syria, the broader picture is closer Iran-Turkey-Russia cooperation on the ground.
For more than six years, the regional rivalry between Iran and Turkey and their support of different sides of the Syrian civil war have been major obstacles to finding a political solution to the Syrian conflict. However, the recent rapprochement between Tehran and Ankara has renewed hopes for the political process to proceed toward a unified solution — one that seemed highly unlikely even a month ago.
Iranian Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri’s official visit Aug. 15 to Turkey, during which he held various meetings with high-ranking Turkish officials, including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was widely interpreted by observers as the beginning of a new era in Tehran-Ankara relations. Indeed, Bagheri’s position as a military and not a political official could be considered a sign that the meetings were about coordination at the operational level, rather than political discussions.
Concern over the Kurdish issue has facilitated the rapprochement between the two countries. In a May 2016 Al-Monitor article, I explained how the Kurdish issue could work as a cornerstone for any Tehran-Ankara agreement regarding the Syrian crisis.
Iraqi Kurds are preparing for an independence referendum in September. Kurdish militants in Syria under the banner of the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are advancing in the Islamic State’s self-proclaimed capital of Raqqa, and the SDF aims to maintain its role in a wide territory in northern Syria. The danger of a Kurdish independence spillover from Iraq into Syria is becoming a reality — and the next step could be into Iran and Turkey, activating centrifugal Kurdish sentiments there.
