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How does Turkey's threatened Syria invasion play elsewhere?

As Turkey prepares for a possible offensive against Kurdish militias in Syria, Moscow is watching for any mistakes that multiple players, including the Unites States and the United Arab Emirates, might make in their efforts to deter the operation.
Turkish soldiers ride on a military vehicle in the center of Afrin, Syria March 24, 2018. REUTERS/Khalil Ashawi - RC1B6933DB00

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Dec. 17 ratcheted up his oft-repeated threat to launch a new military operation in Syria by adding the words “at any moment.” Erdogan also claims US President Donald Trump “gave a positive response” to starting the operation, though US special envoy for Syria James Jeffrey said the United States is united in its opposition and the Pentagon warned Ankara against any military move.  

So, even as Turkey, Russia and Iran agreed Dec. 18 on a committee to craft a Syrian constitution, it's quite likely that Ankara is indeed planning a military campaign east of the Euphrates aimed at weakening Kurdish militants. Counterintuitively, it could benefit both Russia and the United States.

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