How Turkish referendum victory could backfire for Erdogan
The close vote in the April 16 referendum has galvanized Turkey’s opposition, but the prospect of the diverse political spectrum agreeing on a joint candidate to confront President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the 2019 elections remains daunting.
Can Turkey’s fractured opposition unite and produce a leader like French presidential winner Emmanuel Macron, driven by shared apprehension over President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rule? Can the critical presidential election in 2019 mobilize the opposition against him?
It's possible on paper, for the constitutional changes narrowly approved in the April 16 referendum have changed the rules of the game. Under the proportional representation system of the outgoing parliamentary regime, removing Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) from power was virtually impossible under existing political balances. The new rules, however, allow an abrupt change in the seat of power by offering ground for alliances in the second round of the presidential vote. In other words, the new constitutional order that Erdogan wanted so badly and ultimately obtained risks becoming a political trap for him.
