In the run-up to the critical referendum expected in April on a presidential system, Turkish voters appear divided along the usual electoral lines. Public opinion surveys by Metropoll suggest that 80% of Justice and Development Party (AKP) voters are poised to back the constitutional amendments to install a presidential regime, while 90% of supporters from the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Kurdish-dominated Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) are readying to vote “no.” There is, however, a new dynamic afoot creating a climate of uncertainty different from those during previous run-ups to elections.
Voters seem well aware of the momentous decision they face, and the atmosphere is somehow reminiscent of the June 2015 elections in which popular discontent came to the fore, breaking partisan voting patterns and stripping the AKP of its parliamentary majority for the first time since 2002. Today’s new dynamic flows essentially from Turkey’s conservative quarters, on which the ruling AKP and its partner in the constitutional changes, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), rely.
The possible shift to a presidential regime has triggered heated debates and even cracks in AKP and MHP ranks. While the two parties combined won 62% of the vote in the last general elections, in November 2015, only 43% of the electorate currently plans to vote “yes” in the looming referendum. Among AKP voters, 10% oppose a presidential system, while another 10% are undecided, according to pollsters from Konsensus. Given that this 20% segment of AKP voters constitutes 10% of the total electorate, popular support for the ruling party seems to have declined by 10 percentage points since November 2015, falling to about 40% — the proportion of the vote it got when it lost its parliamentary majority.
The mutiny in the MHP wing of the conservative camp appears to be even more serious, with some 65% of the party’s voters saying they will vote “no,” according to pollsters from Gezici. The hesitation on the right is also reflected in the relatively high percentage of undecided voters. According to the Metropoll's “Turkey’s Pulse: January 2017” survey, 10% of both AKP and MHP voters are undecided, compared to about 5% among CHP and HDP supporters.
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