The central question concerning politicians and pundits in Israel and the occupied territories these days is about the day after the US presidential elections. What will happen in the transition period starting Nov. 9 and ending with the changing of the guard at the White House on Jan. 20, 2017? Will President Barack Obama veto the UN Security Council resolution recognizing a Palestinian state, or will he make do with yet another speech rebuking Israel? Or perhaps he will prefer a UN vote condemning the Jewish settlements? Either way, any decision Obama makes will have far-reaching implications for millions of people in the Middle East.

If Obama opts to withhold his veto power and the Security Council turns Palestine into a new UN member of equal standing, Israel will automatically and officially become an occupier by force of another UN member state. Of course, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will then summon Israel’s UN envoy, Danny Danon, for consultations in Jerusalem in protest, as he did in reaction to the UNESCO decision over the Temple Mount, which denied Jewish ties to the Temple Mount and Western Wall. But this “punishment” is highly unlikely to stop the snowball of international sanctions against Israel by all agencies of the UN and capitals of the world.

On the other hand, if Obama chooses only to issue a lame-duck reprimand to Israel over settlement construction, his final days in the Oval Office could also be the final days of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah movement at their headquarters in the Palestinian West Bank city of Ramallah. Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman seems to have already dismissed Abbas, promising to only do business with his successor.

In an Oct. 13 interview with the daily Israel Hayom, Avi Dichter, the chairman of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, suggested that “the next president of the Palestinian Authority may not even be from the ranks of Fatah. … I would not be surprised if Khaled Meshaal [the head of Hamas’ political bureau] runs and is crowned president.” Dichter, the former director of Israel’s Shin Bet internal security agency, thinks Hamas will ignore all the agreements that the Palestinian Authority (PA) signed with Israel over the years, as it did when it took over Gaza in 2007. “Such a reality takes us back to a situation that is far worse than the one in the territories before the [1993] Oslo Accord,” Dichter said. The only solution in that situation, in his view, would be for Israel to renew its control over all the West Bank territories.