Skip to main content

Will there be peace in Yemen?

Signs point to Saudi Arabia wanting out of its war in Yemen as Oman-mediated talks open with the Shiite Houthi rebels.
People walk at the site of a Saudi-led air strike in Yemen's capital Sanaa September 21, 2015. More than 4,500 Yemeni have been killed since the Saudi-led alliance began military operations in March, in what they said was an attempt to stop the Iranian-allied Houthi group from expanding in Yemen and to restore President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who had been pushed into exile in Saudi Arabia.   REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah - RTS253B

Saudi Arabia appears to be looking for a way to end the nearly year-old war in Yemen. Riyadh seems to recognize it needs to find a compromise with the Shiite Houthi rebels, but the road to a lasting peace will be very difficult.

After quiet mediation by Oman, Saudi Arabia agreed to a visit to Riyadh by two senior Houthi representatives this week, according to press reports. Mohammad Abdul Salem, a Houthi spokesman, is leading the delegation.

The talks come as the war seems to be de-escalating. Airstrikes by the Royal Saudi Air Force seem much less frequent and clashes along the Yemeni-Saudi border less intense. A limited prisoner swap has taken place. The Houthis say they are still confronting "the Saudi-American aggression," but the fighting seems to be slowed. There is no broad cease-fire but there are fewer provocations, at least for the moment.

A lull is desperately needed. The Saudi border provinces along the North Yemen frontier have suffered badly from Houthi mortar and rocket fire. The rebels have taken the war across the border into the kingdom.

The United Nations estimates that 2.4 million Yemenis have been forcibly displaced from their homes. A half million internally displaced people are from the city of Taez, which has been under siege by the Houthis for months. Another quarter million have lost homes in Sanaa due to the bombing there. The Houthi stronghold at Saada has lost another quarter million. Food, water and medicine are in short supply, and things are only getting worse.

The gap between the two sides is wide. No mention has been made about the future of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his family. They have been crucial allies for the Houthis, providing sophisticated weapons like Scud missiles. The conventional wisdom has long held that Saleh needs to go into exile for any peace deal to work, but he has not shown any interest in such an outcome.

Another question is whether Saleh's successor President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi will be reinstalled in Sanaa, the original objective of Operation Decisive Storm a year ago. Hadi has tenuous control of Aden, where assassinations and bombings are frequent. He has little popular support, however, and has proven to be a weak leader.

Some kind of national unity government may be a solution, but the devil will be in the details. A prolonged pause in the fighting may be a more realistic next step, but it would be much better to have it enshrined in a formal truce agreement than just a vague understanding. A cease-fire would be essential to getting the blockade lifted and relief supplies into the country.

The Saudi interest in talks with the Houthis and de-escalating the war is a step in the right direction. It coincides with an increase in the visibility of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef. The crown prince spent much of January and February out of the kingdom, in Algeria at his father's residence. The prince met with Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika on Feb. 5 in Algiers.

Since returning to the kingdom, bin Nayef has attended a summit of Arab interior ministers in Tunis and held high-profile talks in Paris with President Francois Hollande. He was awarded the Legion d'Honneur for his part in fighting al-Qaeda by the French. He also agreed that Saudi Arabia would receive $4 billion in arms originally planned for Lebanon but suspended during Riyadh's quarrel with Beirut over Hezbollah. This was good news to the French arms industry.

The crown prince is said to be more cautious and risk averse than the king's favorite son, Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman.

Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is visiting Riyadh this week. Another skeptic of the Yemen war, Sharif rebuffed Saudi requests to join the war a year ago. His visit this week is said to be intended to reboot the Saudi-Pakistan relationship. He will argue for cooling temperatures between Riyadh and Tehran.

There are plenty of spoilers eager to block any move toward ratcheting down the war. Both the Islamic State and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula have the capacity to cause mayhem. AQAP has never been stronger. There are doubtless some on both sides in Riyadh and Sanaa who are not eager to stop the violence. Iran has enjoyed watching Saudi Arabia get bogged down in Yemen, and some in Tehran doubtless want the kingdom's quagmire to deepen.

The United States has every reason to want to end this war. It distracts resources from the fight with IS in Syria and Iraq, and fuels sectarian tensions and the proxy regional conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It embitters a generation of Yemenis to hate the Americans for arming the Saudi bombing campaign. The chances of a settlement in Yemen are still slim, but Washington should put some muscle behind the effort.

Join hundreds of Middle East professionals with Al-Monitor PRO.

Business and policy professionals use PRO to monitor the regional economy and improve their reports, memos and presentations. Try it for free and cancel anytime.

Already a Member? Sign in

Free

The Middle East's Best Newsletters

Join over 50,000 readers who access our journalists dedicated newsletters, covering the top political, security, business and tech issues across the region each week.
Delivered straight to your inbox.

Free

What's included:
Our Expertise

Free newsletters available:

  • The Takeaway & Week in Review
  • Middle East Minute (AM)
  • Daily Briefing (PM)
  • Business & Tech Briefing
  • Security Briefing
  • Gulf Briefing
  • Israel Briefing
  • Palestine Briefing
  • Turkey Briefing
  • Iraq Briefing
Expert

Premium Membership

Join the Middle East's most notable experts for premium memos, trend reports, live video Q&A, and intimate in-person events, each detailing exclusive insights on business and geopolitical trends shaping the region.

$25.00 / month
billed annually

Become Member Start with 1-week free trial
What's included:
Our Expertise AI-driven

Memos - premium analytical writing: actionable insights on markets and geopolitics.

Live Video Q&A - Hear from our top journalists and regional experts.

Special Events - Intimate in-person events with business & political VIPs.

Trend Reports - Deep dive analysis on market updates.

All premium Industry Newsletters - Monitor the Middle East's most important industries. Prioritize your target industries for weekly review:

  • Capital Markets & Private Equity
  • Venture Capital & Startups
  • Green Energy
  • Supply Chain
  • Sustainable Development
  • Leading Edge Technology
  • Oil & Gas
  • Real Estate & Construction
  • Banking

We also offer team plans. Please send an email to pro.support@al-monitor.com and we'll onboard your team.

Already a Member? Sign in

Gulf Briefing Gulf Briefing

Gulf Briefing

Top GCC stories in your inbox each week

Trend Reports

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (4th R) attends a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (3rd L) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on February 22, 2019. (Photo by HOW HWEE YOUNG / POOL / AFP) (Photo credit should read HOW HWEE YOUNG/AFP via Getty Images)
Premium

From roads to routers: The future of China-Middle East connectivity

A general view shows the solar plant in Uyayna, north of Riyadh, on March 29, 2018. - On March 27, Saudi announced a deal with Japan's SoftBank to build the world's biggest solar plant. (Photo by FAYEZ NURELDINE / AFP) (Photo credit should read FAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP via Getty Images)
Premium

Regulations on Middle East renewable energy industry starting to take shape

Start your PRO membership today.

Join the Middle East's top business and policy professionals to access exclusive PRO insights today.

Join Al-Monitor PRO Start with 1-week free trial