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Will Turkey risk military confrontation with Russia?

Leading military analysts say Putin is trying to draw Ankara into a fight that could have disastrous results for Turkey.

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Russian Defense Ministry officials sit under a display showing the Turkish-Syrian border during a briefing in Moscow, Dec. 2, 2015. — REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin

Tensions between Russia and Turkey continue to escalate following the downing in November of a Russian Su-24 fighter jet that strayed into Turkish airspace.

Questions are being raised now whether the two countries are heading for a military confrontation. A leading Turkish military expert told Al-Monitor that such a Russian move could spell disaster for Turkey.

Turkey accused Russia of violating its airspace again last week and summoned Russia’s ambassador in Ankara to lodge a formal protest. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu also warned Moscow that it was playing with fire and would have to face the consequences.

Tellingly, however, the Russian Su-34 fighter jet was not shot down this time. Despite Ankara’s dire warnings to Moscow, the protest lodged with the Russian ambassador shows that Davutoglu's government, despite its apparent tough stance, is treading more cautiously to avoid another head-on military incident with Russia.

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