While observers often focus on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy successes — such as Moscow’s largely bloodless seizure of the Crimean Peninsula and its improving position in the Middle East — the Kremlin leader makes his fair share of mistakes. Some of them can even be quite costly, like the overconfidence in eastern Ukraine (following a relatively easy victory in Crimea) that has trapped Putin in a complex quagmire. Others look significant but might be correctable, such as Putin’s apparently casual attitude toward an important strategic opportunity in Russia’s relations with Turkey.
Broadly speaking, Russo-Turkish relations have improved significantly in recent years as trade has expanded. At the same time, Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have managed to compartmentalize differences over Syria and some other issues. Long-standing tensions in Turkey’s on-again off-again contacts with the European Union and its frequent differences with Washington haven’t hurt either.
With this generally favorable context, Putin assembled a large and impressive group to meet with Erdogan on June 13 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where each was attending the opening ceremonies of the First European Games. Putin’s delegation included his top Kremlin foreign policy aide, Ambassador Yuri Ushakov; Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov; his influential press spokesman, Dmitry Peskov; Energy Minister Alexander Novak; and the heads of Gazprom and Russia’s state nuclear energy firm, Rosatom. Governments don’t typically do this unless they want — and expect — to make something happen.
Nevertheless, the Kremlin’s official report on the meeting noted only what the two men discussed — gas and nuclear deals, Turkey’s elections, the games — not what they agreed on or decided. Indeed, Peskov characterized the talks only as “very good, detailed and constructive.” In international diplomacy, words like “detailed” and “constructive” often follow difficult meetings rather than good ones — especially when officials don’t share much else. Few details have emerged from the conversation beyond Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller’s proposal for meetings between Russian and Turkish “experts” to discuss the Turkish Stream pipeline, which implies that important issues remain unresolved.
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