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Israel adjusts to Syrian insurgents on Golan border

Israel is assessing the consequences and contingencies for dealing with Syrian insurgents on its northern border and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's holding on to power.
Israeli soldiers stand on a field overlooking Syria in the Golan Heights March 19, 2014. Israel launched air strikes on Wednesday against Syrian military sites in response to a roadside bombing that wounded four of its soldiers, but both sides signalled they were not seeking further escalation. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun (CIVIL UNREST MILITARY POLITICS) - RTR3HQDT

Some of Israel’s top defense officials are already willing to wager the results of the forthcoming elections in Syria. “Syrian President Bashar Assad will get about 70% of the votes,” one high-ranking Israeli defense official told me this week. Those more inclined to joke add that the difference between the customary results of elections in Syria, whereby the president usually rakes in 98% of the votes, and the next results expected is that those who will not vote for Assad this time have either been killed or wounded.

On a more serious note, however, after more than three years of bloody civil war, even Assad and his associates understand that yesteryear’s traditional results, which reflected 100% support for the president, belong to a bygone era. “This time [the Syrian regime] will have to demonstrate a democratic game, or at least go through the motions,” Israeli intelligence officials monitoring Syria have said. As for Assad's fate, there are no more disputes in Israel. Everyone understands that in the short run, and perhaps in the medium term as well, Assad is here to stay in one form or another.

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