On his visit to Riyadh, John Kerry, the US secretary of state, will encounter a strategic partner that has become too bewildered by the changing Arab world.

A chorus of important princely Saudi voices have already been heard before the visit, pointing to disappointment amounting to anger over the failure of the United States to act in Syria and promising serious shifts in the Saudi-US partnership. The two Al-Faisal brothers, Saud and Turki, in addition to Bandar bin Sultan, have left no doubt that Saudi Arabia is distressed by recent US policies vis-à-vis Syria and Iran.

Over the last decade, Saudi Arabia struggled to reassure its own people and the international community that it still matters, not only for its oil, but also for its claims to lead the Arab world. Away from both rhetoric and wishful thinking, Saudi realities are today very different from what they used to be in the 1970s, when for a brief moment King Faisal had the potential to play a leading role. Yet Saudi Arabia today is far from that fleeting historical moment. Saudi Arabia consolidated its partnership with the West in the shadow of the Cold War. But as that war gave way to more complex political outcomes, the West’s reliance on Saudi Arabia was withering, regardless of how important Saudi resources are. Saudi Arabia was previously thought of as part of any solutions that deal with the region’s many problems, but now it may have actually become part of the problems facing the Arab region after its stumbling uprisings. The Saudis struggle today to reassert their position for many reasons.

First, Saudi Arabia today lacks charismatic and energetic leadership capable of energizing not only its domestic politics, but also foreign relations. Internally, the Saudi monarchy is at a standstill, refusing to acknowledge that it is out of touch with the serious changes that swept the Arab world over the last three years. The leadership is still relying on old strategies to keep the winds of change away from the Arabian desert. It resorts to a combination of carrots and sticks, with the latter often becoming easily deployed in an attempt to stifle debate and intimidate courageous activists.