ISIS exploits weak Iraqi, Syrian states

Mustafa Alani, a researcher on Security and Terrorism Affairs at the Gulf Center for Research, believes that al-Qaeda — despite its success in reorganizing its ranks in Iraq — still lacks strategic depth and a welcoming environment in the long run. Therefore, it is seeking to establish a more fluid entity in regions on both sides of the Iraqi-Syrian border to fight the military pressure it could face in Iraq by redeploying itself in the Syrian territories. The opposite would be true if it were faced by Syrian pressure. Hence, the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is a project to build a state that feeds on the failure and fragility of the governments in Iraq and Syria. 

Al-Qaeda’s strategy is based on gradually controlling non-central regions especially in Anbar, northern Babylon, northern Diyala and parts of Mosul, and setting off to shake the control of the federal government in the city centers. Moreover, the organization aims at pushing the army to focus its efforts on defending those centers rather than attacking its camps.

Alani also believes that the wave of attacks that targeted Baghdad in the last several months aimed to draw the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) into the capital to facilitate the organization’s activity in the regions located in the northwest toward the Syrian border. At the same time, luring the Iraqi army into battles in the desert might lead to exposing the city centers, thus making them easy targets for huge attacks.

We can conclude that ISIS has succeeded until now in achieving a balance of its activities. On the one hand, it has increased attacks on the ISF as part of the “Soldiers' Harvest” campaign, and on the other hand, it has preserved its dormant cells in Baghdad and in city centers where the organization targets civilians — mainly by car bombs — to reduce the pressure on its strongholds and assert itself.