At the beginning, no one knew what to make of the Syrian rebellion. It began on a small scale in the town of Deraa, but refused to die down. Then, after a few months of marking time, the revolt burst out with colossal intensity. Syrian President Assad’s associates deserted one after the other, the army began to fall apart and the end seemed imminent.

I have been following the headlines accompanying coverage of the war in Syria on Israeli television for the last two years. The chronology is detached from what is happening on the ground. When the revolt gathered strength and Assad seemed desperate, the heading “Assad-The End” began to appear on the screen every time a report on the Syrian issue was broadcast. For long weeks, we followed Assad’s bitter end with great interest and bated breath. But the end did not arrive so fast.

Afterward, when it became clear that this was going to be a protracted, laborious story whose resolution was shrouded in mystery, the heading changed to “Assad-The End?” The question mark was added by those who had learned from experience: that as opposed to the other “springs” that blossomed in the Arab world, the Syrian matter had a life of its own and a totally independent course. And now, when no one really understands what and how is happening there; and how, when and if it will ever come to an end — I would suggest changing the heading again. I would leave only one large question mark, suspended above us all.

Someone not connected to the battlefield but who is well acquainted with it told me a few months ago that the Syrians “will continued to kill one another for a long time.” Exactly. Meanwhile, we have long held the conception that Assad’s fall would herald positive, encouraging tidings for Israel, the West, the moderate countries and peace seekers from all over the world. However — according to my high-placed Israeli defense establishment source — this conception has been gradually eroded. This man, who is deeply familiar with the Syrian arena, who has followed the events in Syria for decades, and who can enumerate Assad’s generals in the order of their defection — in his sleep — says, “I am not sure we won’t long for Assad in the near future. In fact, we may even miss him already.” That’s what happens when we approach the unknown. Suddenly it becomes clear that life after Assad, if such a thing will ever happen, will be a lot less clear and predictable than we planned.