The last few days have revealed, if there was ever any doubt, that the United States cannot rely solely on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in managing the withdrawal of 2,000 US military forces from Syria. The Turkish government considers Syrian Kurdish allies of the United States as terrorists on a par with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS). 

US President Donald Trump therefore will need an assist in Syria from a perhaps unlikely trio: Russian President Vladimir Putin, which may be difficult given the current US political climate; Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who may see a turnaround on Syria as part of his US and international rehabilitation program; and, here’s the kicker, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, whose government will in the end, one way or another, settle or scuttle a deal between Turkey and the Kurds. 

Last week James Jeffrey, the US special envoy for Syria and the counter-IS campaign, advised Syrian Kurdish leaders to hold off dealing with the Syrian government as the United States scrambles to manage the withdrawal of its 2,000 troops and prevent a confrontation between Turkey and US-allied Kurdish groups.

There may be good tactical reasons for the United States to buy time. But the trends are crystal clear, and the Kurds won’t, and can’t, keep such a promise for long. The US military is leaving, Turkey is threatening, Assad is staying, Arab countries are reconsidering their approach to the Syrian government and Putin holds many, if not most, of the diplomatic cards. The bottom line, as we have reported here time and again, is that the bumpy and treacherous road to alleviating Turkish concerns over the People's Protection Units (YPG) and the Democratic Union Party (PYD) ultimately goes through Damascus via Moscow.