Turkey’s local elections are still two months away, but their integrity seems to be already under a cloud amid claims of legal violations and voter registration manipulation. Opposition politicians warn that tensions over foul play could boil over beyond local administrations and plunge the already polarized country into chaos.

Unlike previous local elections, the significance of the March 31 vote is not only about who controls town halls. Both the opposition and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) see the vote as the first electoral test of the executive presidency system, which took effect after last year’s presidential and parliamentary polls. The municipal elections come amid economic turmoil, which, according to pollsters, is eating into the AKP’s popular support. Some suggest that the AKP’s loss of big cities, especially Istanbul and Ankara, could turn up pressure on the government and spark calls for early general elections.

In an alignment mirroring last year’s elections, the AKP has teamed up with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) for the municipal races. In the opposition camp, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) is again in partnership with the Good Party, while the Kurdish-dominated Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) is running on its own.

In a political atmosphere long fraught with tensions, the AKP-led bloc has framed the election outcome as a matter of “survival” for Turkey. Good Party leader Meral Aksener has perhaps best summarized the climate, saying, “We are going to local elections, but when you look at the rhetoric [of the AKP-led alliance], one might think we are going to war.”