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Too much at stake for full-on conflict in southern Syria

Prioritizing de-escalation in southern Syria appears to be the regional consensus, but the rebels’ opposition to any deals could lengthen the process.
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In the midst of an effort by Russia to contain regional tensions, specifically between Iran and Israel by attempting to find a deal in southern Syria, all eyes are focused on the latter where forces close to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad have been regrouping in the last week. In a June 13 interview with Iran's Al-Alam TV, Assad said that his government's next move regarding the region — whether it be retaking control by force or reaching reconciliation with local groups — had yet to be decided. Yet the strategic location of southern Syria, located on the border with Israel, as well as US, Jordanian and Russian concerns for an escalation, could result in a mixed approach involving a targeted offensive dovetailed mostly by successive deals with local councils, despite rebels’ opposition to the project.

Syria’s south is home to 1.3 million Sunni, Christian and Druze minorities. The area shares borders with Lebanon, Jordan and Israel and is dominated by the mainstream Free Syrian Army factions regrouped under the Southern Front. The latter is comprised of 20,000 fighters spread across the southern provinces of Quneitra, Daraa and Suwayda, according to Syria expert Sinan Hatahet from the Turkey-based Omran for Strategic Studies. The presence of jihadi groups is limited to a small number of Islamic State fighters affiliated with the former Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade and Harakat al-Muthanna al-Islamiyyah, which together formed the Khalid bin Walid Army, located mostly in the Yarmouk Basin, Hatahet told Al-Monitor.

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