Russian and Saudi officials say their cooperation in the oil and gas field, as well as joint efforts aimed at stabilizing international oil prices, can finally create solid ground for them to develop long-sought bilateral ties. But their optimism could turn out to be just wishful thinking.

The countries increased their political and economic dialogue during 2017. Apart from the formal increase in the number of political contacts that culminated in the first visit of a Saudi monarch to Russia, their discussions had several practical outcomes. Above all, Moscow and Riyadh managed to work out a common stance on extending the so-called OPEC plus deal, a 2016 agreement signed between the OPEC and non-OPEC members aimed at decreasing their oil production to boost prices on the international market. Russia and Saudi Arabia recently worked with the other parties to extend the deal until the end of 2018. This month, during a phone talk with King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, Russian President Vladimir Putin personally confirmed the Kremlin’s intention to strengthen cooperation with Riyadh in the oil and gas sphere.

The Kremlin currently gives the impression that, even after the OPEC plus agreement ends, the two countries will continue to cooperate to stabilize the international oil market. Russia believes economic cooperation can turn Riyadh into one of Moscow’s political partners in the region. It can hardly be a coincidence that, during their phone call, the Russian and Saudi leaders discussed not only extending the OPEC plus deal, but also the political situation in the Middle East, including Syria and Yemen. Under these circumstances, some analysts interviewed by Al-Monitor claim Russia extended the deal to appease Riyadh and gain leverage with the Saudis. That idea exaggerates the role of external factors in Russia's decision-making process.

Moscow's main statements in favor of extending the deal were either related to economic factors or Russia's domestic situation. By November, Russian officials argued that, while the OPEC plus deal was definitely working, international oil reserves were still above a five-year average. This, in turn, put the oil market's further stability in question. Consequently, Russian leadership believed it necessary to extend the deal to further deplete commercial oil reserves in the world and ensure stable demand and relatively high oil prices. On the other hand, the Russian leadership believes the OPEC plus deal helps keep oil prices in the range of $50 to $65 per barrel, which guarantees the stable inflow of petrodollars to the country’s budget and improves the Russian economy's performance. This is extremely important given the coming presidential election, difficult economic situation and growing protests. In other words, the Kremlin considers high and stable oil prices an important base for the regime's political survival.