Trump 'hit the brakes': Netanyahu's circle faults US president for failed Iran regime change, looming deal

TEL AVIV — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regards the emerging US-Iran agreement as nothing short of disastrous and blames President Donald Trump for the fiasco, a senior political source told Al-Monitor. 

The impending agreement is fueling speculation in Israel that Netanyahu could be forced to step down to avoid losing the upcoming elections and risking jail time over his corruption indictment. Netanyahu’s frustration is also compounded by Israeli intelligence assessments that the Tehran regime could have been toppled at the outset of the war had Trump gone along with Israel's plans, including a proposal to arm Kurdish forces.

Netanyahu faces political disaster

“This time, the prime minister’s hands are tied. He is completely paralyzed and knows that he will not be able to do anything, even if the agreement signed between the United States and Iran remains the disaster he now defines it as,” one of Netanyahu’s associates told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.

Netanyahu has reached the point where he longs for the days of President Joe Biden — even President Barack Obama, the political insider said, adding, “Now, all he can do is salute Trump.”

Since Trump’s April 8 announcement of a ceasefire with Tehran, Netanyahu’s opponents have criticized his claims that Iran had been defeated. On Monday, opposition leader Yair Lapid accused Netanyahu of failing to influence the terms of an agreement. “The deal is bad for Israel, bad for the region and bad for the citizens of Iran,” Lapid told reporters in Jerusalem.

If the agreement between Iran and the United States proves to be as damaging as Israel fears, Netanyahu could step down, the associate estimated, saying, “A US-Iran agreement will affect Netanyahu’s decision on whether to run in the upcoming elections or conclude that it is time to quit in exchange for a plea bargain.”

Elections are scheduled for September or October, and given Netanyahu’s determination to remain in power, the likelihood of Israel’s longest-serving leader withdrawing before then remains slim. Still, that the possibility is being discussed behind closed doors is significant, as Netanyahu is not known for quitting.

Talk of a plea bargain to end the corruption trial Netanyahu has faced since May 2020 has surfaced periodically, but Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected proposals that would require him to leave politics. President Isaac Herzog entered the fray on April 28, inviting Netanyahu and prosecutors to discuss a possible agreement, but the prime minister has yet to respond publicly.

But the combination of a potentially unfavorable agreement and looming elections could alter the equation. When Trump first announced the ceasefire with Iran, while also pressing Israel to accept a ceasefire in Lebanon, analysts suggested Netanyahu complied in hopes of securing continued US pressure on Herzog to pardon him, and a US-imposed agreement that would permanently dismantle Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

So far, Trump’s pressure on Herzog has failed to produce a pardon. And with election dates to be set soon, Netanyahu has run out of time to advance legislation that could suspend his trial or shield him from imprisonment if convicted. A plea bargain may be his last viable option.

Trump's regime-change failure

Netanyahu’s inner circle is also blaming Trump for failing to pursue what senior security officials describe as a realistic opportunity to topple the Tehran regime with the assistance of Iran’s Kurdish minority.

Fox News reported on March 3 that thousands of armed Kurdish fighters planned to cross from Iraq into Iran during the opening days of the war under heavy US and Israeli air cover. Speaking to reporters five days later, Trump said he opposed Kurdish fighters joining the conflict after previously expressing support for the idea. “They’re willing to go in, but I’ve told them I don’t want them to go in," he said. "The war is complicated enough as it is.”

A senior Israeli intelligence source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “The plan to overthrow the Iranian regime with Kurdish cooperation was comprehensive and detailed. We invested enormous resources and energy into it. It was not a gimmick, and it was not superficial. The Americans know this very well because they were thoroughly briefed.”

He went on, “The Kurds themselves were eager to carry out the operation. For them, it was the realization of a dream — to work alongside the Israeli air force and American power. But Washington hit the brakes at the last minute.” The source lamented, “We know today with certainty that it was [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan who influenced Trump to halt everything. Who knows when or if such an opportunity will arise again.”

According to this source, the disappointment among Iraqi Kurds was profound, as was the fear of retaliation from Tehran after details of the plan surfaced.

The same source told Al-Monitor that Trump also blocked other operational initiatives. “Trump has repeatedly put on the brakes, leading to the postponement or cancellation of additional operational plans and major capabilities Israel developed to topple the regime,” he said, warning that “the consequences could be disastrous and long-term.”

While Israel remained convinced that, based on longstanding clandestine ties with Kurdish communities in Iraq and Iran, Kurdish forces could play a decisive role in bringing down the Iranian regime, its allies remained skeptical.

Still, a senior Israeli security official insisted that regime change remains possible. “This can still happen. Eighty percent of the Iranian people aspire to get rid of the regime and live in a freer country. It can still be done with patience and proper conduct,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity. But, he warned, a US-Iran agreement that channels billions of dollars back into Tehran would destroy those prospects.

Iranian regional hegemony

The senior Israeli intelligence source pointed to the risks posed by Iran gaining de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz. “If Iran becomes the effective controlling force there under the agreement, it will make the situation far more dangerous than before,” he said, explaining that the war taught Iran that the strait is a weapon perhaps even more valuable than nuclear arms that Tehran won't hesitate to use to hold the world hostage.

Although Israeli officials remain uncertain about the final contours of an agreement Trump may sign, the prevailing assessment is that it would include a memorandum of understanding extending the ceasefire without fully addressing Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium or its future nuclear capabilities.

Israel is also grappling with uncertainty over who truly holds power in Tehran. “The question is whether [Iranian Supreme Leader] Mojtaba Khamenei is managing events or being managed by others. At the moment, we do not have a definitive answer,” the senior Israeli intelligence source said.