Twelve years into the Syrian civil war, the sea change in the Middle East at large may bring the Levantine country, now partially under Iranian, Russian and Turkish control, back into the Arab fold.
Among the main drivers of that change are assertive Saudi leadership, the massive refocus of Russia on Ukraine and increased domestic uncertainty in Turkey — plus the new constraints on Iran after China displayed its strong-arm policy when mediating between Tehran and Riyadh, protecting the latter against attacks by the Islamic Republic.
Finally, the anti-Arab agenda of Benjamin Netanyahu's ultra-right government in Israel has dwindled the Arab trust in the 2020 Abraham Accords and weakened the US regional security architecture — which kept Assad’s Syria at bay.
The main push factor for the near future is Saudi political assertion under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The fabulous hydrocarbon enrichment of the Gulf countries has helped Riyadh distance itself from Washington, and the trend was pushed forward when Riyadh turned to China for security guarantees against Iran in March 2023 — which neither Washington nor Israel could deliver anymore. In so doing, the Saudi crown prince took a significant step aside from the oil-for-security agreement between the kingdom and the US over the last three quarters of a century. Absent the Soviet peril nowadays, the agreement still holds partially — joint US-Saudi defense drills are currently taking place — but it now has to cope with Chinese clout.
