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Analysis

Turkey ‘highly vulnerable’ to liquidity pinch, says leading credit agency

Turkey, Tunisia and other countries in the Middle East could face liquidity challenges amid rising interest rates worldwide.

Turkey economy
People queue to buy olive oil, which is sold cheaply by the Agricultural Products Office, in Ankara on Feb. 17, 2022. Turkey's central bank kept its main interest rate steady again as the country faces soaring inflation that has put pressure on households and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government. — ADEM ALTAN/AFP via Getty Images

Turkey, Tunisia and other countries in the Middle East and North Africa are at risk of liquidity challenges due to tightening monetary conditions worldwide, according to S&P Global.

The New York-based credit rating agency released a report Monday identifying five emerging markets as especially susceptible to external funding stress: Turkey, Qatar, Tunisia, Egypt and Indonesia. 

Tightening monetary policy refers to the rise in central banks’ interest rates around the world in response to heightened inflation. Several Middle Eastern financial institutions have raised their rates this year, including Egypt and most Gulf states, including Qatar. 

Central banks raising interest rates tends to have a ripple effect on the economy. Commercial banks in turn increase their rates. This more expensive borrowing discourages people from taking out loans. Interest rates and money supply tend to have an inverse relationship. Liquidity refers to the ability to convert assets and securities such as stocks into cash for purchases, and cash itself is the most liquid asset, according to Investopedia. 

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