Skip to main content

Erdogan says Sweden's, Finland's NATO memberships not done deal

The Turkish president says that while the two countries are invited to join NATO, the possibility of a veto remains if they don't keep their promises.
Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson (L) shakes hands with Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made clear that Sweden and Finland’s NATO accession was far from a done deal a day after shelving threats of a veto and allowing the Nordic countries' memberships to proceed.

“The agreement that was signed is just a beginning, an invitation. What is of essence is that promises that were made are put into action,” Erdogan said at a news conference in Madrid today on the sidelines of the NATO summit. He was referring to a document that he signed Tuesday with the Swedish premier and Finnish president in which both agreed to end their support for the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and its political arm, the Democratic Unity Party (PYD), which Turkey says pose a threat to its national security. In exchange, Turkey agreed to withdraw threats to block their memberships in the alliance.

Why it matters: Turkey could still, in theory, put the kibosh on the Scandinavians because approval of their membership needs to be put before the legislatures of NATO states before becoming final. “This deal won’t materialize unless it's approved by our parliament,” Erdogan warned. “Sweden and Finland must remain faithful to their pledges; otherwise, it is out of the question that [their memberships] would be brought before [the Turkish] parliament.”

Erdogan said Turkey would be scrutinizing Finland's and Sweden’s actions with an eagle eye, adding that they had pledged to extradite 73 “terrorists” wanted by Turkey. Many are believed to be associated with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the Pennsylvania-based Sunni preacher Fethullah Gulen, who is accused of masterminding the 2016 putsch to overthrow Erdogan.

However, it remains to be seen whether Finnish and Swedish prosecutors see eye to eye with Turkey on what defines a terrorist, and there are already loud grumbles from left-wing parties in Sweden. One is pressing for delisting the PKK as a terrorist outfit.

Biden effect: President Joe Biden, who met with Erdogan in Madrid yesterday, called the Turkish leader on Tuesday before doing so, ostensibly to convey the importance of letting Finland and Sweden join the alliance in the face of Russian aggression in the region.

That call, along with pressure from NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Sweden to accommodate Turkey’s demands, unlocked a two-month impasse. Turkey hailed the outcome as a win. In fact, Turkey saved itself from a further meltdown in its relations with Washington. Had Erdogan not relented, the Biden administration would have pulled its support for the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, which needs to be approved by Congress.

Therefore, should Turkey revert to playing hardball on the Nordic accession, the administration could change its tune on the F-16s, as it may should Erdogan make good on his threats to invade northeast Syria again.

Biden denied any linkage, telling reporters there was no “quid pro quo” to sell F-16s to Turkey if it dropped its opposition on Finland and Norway. “I said back in December, as you recall, we should sell them the F-16 jets … modernize those jets as well,” Biden said. “I need congressional approval to be able to do that, and I think we can get that,” Biden added.

Getting to yes: Biden will need to persuade several dissenting senators, notably Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), who is known to be the stiffest opponent of selling any military hardware to Turkey. Menendez has a large ethnic Armenian constituency and an ethnic Armenian spouse, Nadine Arslanian.

Turkey’s indirect military intervention on the side of Azerbaijan helping it defeat Armenia in a brief but bloody war in late 2020 will not have helped the senator’s mood.  Moreover, Turkey’s claims that it now wants to establish diplomatic ties with Armenia and reopen its sealed borders with the tiny landlocked nation are ringing increasingly hollow. Turkey has long said that it would only do so if Armenia withdrew from occupied Azerbaijani lands. Those lands — and more — were wrested back with the help of Turkish drones. Nearly two years on, the borders remain shut and diplomatic ties unestablished. 

Join hundreds of Middle East professionals with Al-Monitor PRO.

Business and policy professionals use PRO to monitor the regional economy and improve their reports, memos and presentations. Try it for free and cancel anytime.

Already a Member? Sign in

Free

The Middle East's Best Newsletters

Join over 50,000 readers who access our journalists dedicated newsletters, covering the top political, security, business and tech issues across the region each week.
Delivered straight to your inbox.

Free

What's included:
Our Expertise

Free newsletters available:

  • The Takeaway & Week in Review
  • Middle East Minute (AM)
  • Daily Briefing (PM)
  • Business & Tech Briefing
  • Security Briefing
  • Gulf Briefing
  • Israel Briefing
  • Palestine Briefing
  • Turkey Briefing
  • Iraq Briefing
Expert

Premium Membership

Join the Middle East's most notable experts for premium memos, trend reports, live video Q&A, and intimate in-person events, each detailing exclusive insights on business and geopolitical trends shaping the region.

$25.00 / month
billed annually

Become Member Start with 1-week free trial
What's included:
Our Expertise AI-driven

Memos - premium analytical writing: actionable insights on markets and geopolitics.

Live Video Q&A - Hear from our top journalists and regional experts.

Special Events - Intimate in-person events with business & political VIPs.

Trend Reports - Deep dive analysis on market updates.

All premium Industry Newsletters - Monitor the Middle East's most important industries. Prioritize your target industries for weekly review:

  • Capital Markets & Private Equity
  • Venture Capital & Startups
  • Green Energy
  • Supply Chain
  • Sustainable Development
  • Leading Edge Technology
  • Oil & Gas
  • Real Estate & Construction
  • Banking

We also offer team plans. Please send an email to pro.support@al-monitor.com and we'll onboard your team.

Already a Member? Sign in

Turkey Briefing Turkey Briefing

Turkey Briefing

Top Turkey stories in your inbox each week

Trend Reports

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (4th R) attends a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (3rd L) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on February 22, 2019. (Photo by HOW HWEE YOUNG / POOL / AFP) (Photo credit should read HOW HWEE YOUNG/AFP via Getty Images)
Premium

From roads to routers: The future of China-Middle East connectivity

A general view shows the solar plant in Uyayna, north of Riyadh, on March 29, 2018. - On March 27, Saudi announced a deal with Japan's SoftBank to build the world's biggest solar plant. (Photo by FAYEZ NURELDINE / AFP) (Photo credit should read FAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP via Getty Images)
Premium

Regulations on Middle East renewable energy industry starting to take shape

Start your PRO membership today.

Join the Middle East's top business and policy professionals to access exclusive PRO insights today.

Join Al-Monitor PRO Start with 1-week free trial