Israel loses patience with Iranian entrenchment in Syria

Is Syrian President Bashar al-Assad starting to change his mind about the long dominance of Iran and Russia in his country? Several intelligence analysts have assessed recently that with Assad’s regime stabilized, the Iranian presence in his country might no be longer an asset but a liability for the Syrian leader. As long as the Iranians remain entrenched in his back yard, the attacks on them attributed to Israel are likely to continue — and have already escalated.

“If it were up to him, the Iranians would no longer be there,” a senior Israeli military source told Al-Monitor a few weeks ago on condition of anonymity. “Assad is now seeking calm and stability. He is making his way back into the fold of the Arab world and his leadership is enjoying renewed legitimacy. A war between Israel and Iran in his territory is the last thing he wants.”

This week’s reports in the Saudi media that Assad was responsible for the departure or expulsion of Iranian Quds Force Commander Jawad Ghafari set off significant buzz in the region. Assad reportedly asked the Iranian regime to recall Ghafari due to the "overactivity" of the Quds Force in his country — meaning the deepening Iranian entrenchment in Syria and its efforts to make the country a platform for war on Israel’s northern borders. Assad seems not to like the idea of having to report to Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and is starting to display signs of impatience, according to various intelligence sources.

The truth is apparently far more complex. “We will probably not be seeing columns of Shiite militias in the service of Iran moving to the east, crossing the Syrian-Iraqi border and returning home anytime soon,” a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor this week on condition of anonymity. “Assad continues to give the Iranians almost complete access to every corner of the country and his military’s emergency storage facilities continue to be at Hezbollah’s disposal, just as they were prior to the outbreak of the civil war.” Asked whether anything had changed, the source answered, “Assad understands the situation and is trying to maneuver within its bounds, while undertaking damage control. The Iranians are currently more of a liability than an asset, but he is far from being able shake off this burden.”