Skip to main content

Turkey’s ruling alliance to ease election threshold, but opponents smell trap

An agreement between the AKP and the MHP to cut the vote baseline to enter parliament from 10% is seen as a bid to undermine the opposition.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (C,R) meets Turkey's Nationalist Movement Party's (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli (C,L) at the Turkish Grand National Assembly in Ankara, on Nov. 19, 2019.

ISTANBUL — Turkey looks set to lower its election threshold for entering parliament — the highest in the world — after party leaders of the ruling alliance agreed to drop it from 10% to 7%.

The current threshold, which was introduced by a military junta in 1983, prevents any political party that receives less than a tenth of votes nationwide from taking a seat in parliament, even if it comes first in a particular constituency.

Over the weekend, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who heads the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), said the reduction had been agreed upon, but he was waiting to hear from alliance partners, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

MHP leader Devlet Bahceli on Wednesday also agreed to the new threshold. “No further evaluation is needed,” he said in a statement.

A draft bill is expected to be presented to parliament, which is controlled by the AKP and the MHP, when it returns in October.

The change is widely seen as benefiting the MHP, which has backed the AKP since 2015 but only entered a formal electoral alliance three years later. In recent years, the nationalists have frequently polled below 10%.

A survey of voting intentions carried out by MetroPOLL, one of the country’s more reliable polling companies, last week showed the MHP receiving 8.9% of ballots.

Amid the perennial talk of an early election — the next is due in 2023 — commentators have speculated on a range of reasons for the change, with many suggesting it indicates friction within the AKP/MHP alliance.

Mustafa Balbay, a former Republican People’s Party (CHP) parliamentary deputy and current columnist for Cumhuriyet, wrote that Erdogan was “testing” his alliance partner.

Another party to be significantly affected by the change is the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), a left-wing group with roots in Turkey’s Kurdish movement. The party entered parliament for the first time in 2015 and has since maintained its support at around 10%, thanks partly to the backing of left-leaning non-Kurds in west Turkey.

The HDP currently faces a case in the Constitutional Court that could see it banned — a case largely instigated by Bahceli’s calls for the party to be closed down.

Ozer Sencar, founder and director of MetroPOLL, said lowering the threshold could see non-Kurdish HDP voters — who previously backed the party to put it over the 10% boundary — switch to other parties.

“Some strategic left-wing voters may shift from the HDP to the CHP,” he told Al-Monitor. “I think the votes that might have switched from the AKP to the MHP so that it doesn’t get caught up in the threshold will stay with the AKP.”

He noted that in the 2018 parliamentary election there was a “significant shift” in votes from the AKP to the MHP.

Meanwhile, Nezih Onur Kuru, political scientist at Istanbul’s Koc University, said the AKP would benefit from the HDP’s loss of strategic voters, particularly in the Kurdish-majority southeast where they are direct competitors for ballots.

“The AKP is also likely to ease the political pressure on Kurdish people in order to attract Kurdish HDP voters and those who abstained from voting in the last elections,” he added.

However, Kuru described a strong bloc opposed to Erdogan’s presidential system. The opposition Nation Alliance, composed primarily of the CHP and the nationalist Iyi Party, is “likely to turn into a broad democratic platform to win in both presidential and parliamentary elections,” he said.

Sencar warned that changing electoral rules carried risks.

“They resort to this path because they can’t change the public’s negative perception toward them or because they think they can’t,” he said. “It’s very likely that those who resort to this path will present an image to the public that they won’t win and [therefore will] lose the election.

He added, “The biggest mistake a government can make is to change the electoral law just before elections.”

Join hundreds of Middle East professionals with Al-Monitor PRO.

Business and policy professionals use PRO to monitor the regional economy and improve their reports, memos and presentations. Try it for free and cancel anytime.

Already a Member? Sign in

Free

The Middle East's Best Newsletters

Join over 50,000 readers who access our journalists dedicated newsletters, covering the top political, security, business and tech issues across the region each week.
Delivered straight to your inbox.

Free

What's included:
Our Expertise

Free newsletters available:

  • The Takeaway & Week in Review
  • Middle East Minute (AM)
  • Daily Briefing (PM)
  • Business & Tech Briefing
  • Security Briefing
  • Gulf Briefing
  • Israel Briefing
  • Palestine Briefing
  • Turkey Briefing
  • Iraq Briefing
Expert

Premium Membership

Join the Middle East's most notable experts for premium memos, trend reports, live video Q&A, and intimate in-person events, each detailing exclusive insights on business and geopolitical trends shaping the region.

$25.00 / month
billed annually

Become Member Start with 1-week free trial
What's included:
Our Expertise AI-driven

Memos - premium analytical writing: actionable insights on markets and geopolitics.

Live Video Q&A - Hear from our top journalists and regional experts.

Special Events - Intimate in-person events with business & political VIPs.

Trend Reports - Deep dive analysis on market updates.

All premium Industry Newsletters - Monitor the Middle East's most important industries. Prioritize your target industries for weekly review:

  • Capital Markets & Private Equity
  • Venture Capital & Startups
  • Green Energy
  • Supply Chain
  • Sustainable Development
  • Leading Edge Technology
  • Oil & Gas
  • Real Estate & Construction
  • Banking

We also offer team plans. Please send an email to pro.support@al-monitor.com and we'll onboard your team.

Already a Member? Sign in

Turkey Briefing Turkey Briefing

Turkey Briefing

Top Turkey stories in your inbox each week

Trend Reports

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (4th R) attends a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (3rd L) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on February 22, 2019. (Photo by HOW HWEE YOUNG / POOL / AFP) (Photo credit should read HOW HWEE YOUNG/AFP via Getty Images)
Premium

From roads to routers: The future of China-Middle East connectivity

A general view shows the solar plant in Uyayna, north of Riyadh, on March 29, 2018. - On March 27, Saudi announced a deal with Japan's SoftBank to build the world's biggest solar plant. (Photo by FAYEZ NURELDINE / AFP) (Photo credit should read FAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP via Getty Images)
Premium

Regulations on Middle East renewable energy industry starting to take shape

Start your PRO membership today.

Join the Middle East's top business and policy professionals to access exclusive PRO insights today.

Join Al-Monitor PRO Start with 1-week free trial