Iranian presidential election market opens on PredictIt

Users of the popular prediction website PredictIt can now place bets on who will win the upcoming Iranian presidential election. 

The New Zealand-based PredictIt is a prediction market where users can bet money on specific outcomes to win cash. People buy shares of a specific “yes or no” outcome — in this case, who will win Iran’s election. At any given time, one yes and one no share theoretically add up to US $1. People can sell these shares, which may fluctuate in value, anytime the market is open. Once an event takes place, PredictIt cashes out the winners at $1 per share. The company takes a fee from any earnings.

Users can buy yes or no shares on the winning prospects of a variety of candidates in the market titled “Who will win the 2021 Iranian presidential election?” At one point Tuesday, judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi was the front-runner with a yes share valued at 55 US cents, down 6 cents, although at one point it was down at least 16 cents. However, the site said the cost of purchasing a yes share was 56 cents and a no share was 59 cents. The prices of the yes and no shares do not always add up to a dollar for various reasons, particularly if there is a lot of trading volatility. 

The speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and former defense minister Hossein Dehghan are among the other options in the election market, with each trading at around 20 cents a yes share. The price of a yes share for Ghalibaf on Tuesday was listed at 20 cents and a no share at 83 cents.